Q2 sales +22% higher yoy (all volume) continued their strong double-digit expansion thanks to foreign sales of yogurt (+40% yoy, o/w UK >56% yoy and ITA  >19% yoy) and ice-cream (+27% yoy), whereas EBITDA/net income declined -21%/-37% yoy on higher input costs/milk (COGS +37% yoy, raw milk +5%-15% yoy), shift to private label, higher opex (+22%) and a higher effective tax rate (+19ppt).

The E4.5m of phasing/pre-opening costs (50% of cash EBITDA) was a notable drag on group cash EBITDA in Q2. The stock declined -4% down on the day of the release. Sales and cash EBITDA came in at E146m and E10m or +13% and -23% yoy. On the flipside…

Credia Bank has entered into a put option agreement with HSBC Cont Europe for the acquisition of 70.03% stake in HSBC Malta for E200m in cash or 0.48x H1 2025 TBV; this multiple is much lower than what we expected and much lower than either HSBC Malta or Bank of Valetta avg YTD P/TBV 2025 (0.80x-0.85x). Somebody wanted to sell asap.

There were no surprises in H1 revenues/adj EBITDA/net income growth of +5%/-1%/-5% yoy, or in the updated guidance/outlook shared by management. With pax growth stronger than expected in 2025 (5%-6%), air revenues/pax need to decline (by 6%-7%) on a full year basis to offset the carry forward balance by year end.

There seems to be >30% upside in Titan Cement’s share price. Shares are at 5.2x EV/EBITDA 2026 (minorities @ market value) and at 9.1x P/E 2026. With EUR peers at 6.7x EBITDA and 11.7x P/E 2026 (source: Visible Alpha).