We initiate coverage of Allwyn following its reverse merger with OPAP and the publication of two sets of quarterly results. The key question is whether Allwyn is the growth story presented to investors and shareholders when the combined entity prospects were communicated almost a year ago.
We have not managed to cover Allwyn yet (OPAP post the reverse merger). Management hosted a roundtable yesterday (Sep 17). Key takeaways include:
Q3 GGR/EBITDA/net came in at +6%/-1%/+3% yoy with operating costs growing +20% yoy. Lotteries (+10%) and VLTs (+11%) covered for the muted online growth (+3%; o/w betting -8% on higher payout). Management reiterated full year guidance for low-single digit GGR growth and 35% EBITDA margin, which implies…
We feel vindicated going through Allwyn’s (owns 52% in OPAP) reverse merge presentation (Oct 13) describing OPAP does not have much earnings growth or that, post 2030, EBITDA and cash flows will drop significantly, even OPAP renews its core license. It is the main reason we have a DO NOT OWN IT (DOI) rating on…
OPAP reported solid Q1 results with GGR/ EBITDA/net income at E595m/E207m/E123m or +8%/+8%/+10% yoy. Driven by +5% GGR growth in offline and +19% yoy GGR growth in online. Judging from total online GGR growth at +16% yoy in Q1 (regulator), OPAP enjoyed a higher market share in online. Management reiterated full year targets for low…