Q3 GGR/EBITDA/net came in at +6%/-1%/+3% yoy with operating costs growing +20% yoy. Lotteries (+10%) and VLTs (+11%) covered for the muted online growth (+3%; o/w betting -8% on higher payout). Management reiterated full year guidance for low-single digit GGR growth and 35% EBITDA margin, which implies…

We feel vindicated going through Allwyn’s (owns 52% in OPAP) reverse merge presentation (Oct 13) describing OPAP does not have much earnings growth or that, post 2030, EBITDA and cash flows will drop significantly, even OPAP renews its core license. It is the main reason we have a DO NOT OWN IT (DOI) rating on the stock, with a PT of E15.7.

OPAP reported solid Q1 results with GGR/ EBITDA/net income at E595m/E207m/E123m or +8%/+8%/+10% yoy. Driven by +5% GGR growth in offline and +19% yoy GGR growth in online. Judging from total online GGR growth at +16% yoy in Q1 (regulator), OPAP enjoyed a higher market share in online. Management reiterated full year targets for low single digit GGR growth and EBITDA margin at 35% (flat yoy).

OPAP reported a strong set of Q4 results with GGR/adj EBITDA/adj net income of E648m/E245m/E130m or +11%/+24%/+19% yoy and +7%/+14%/-15% vs our estimates. Driven by a better payout and customer engagement in sports betting, in both offline and online, plus lower opex.

This is our BoP Greek equities briefing. We have not made many changes compared to our semi-annual one in July: we downgraded Alpha and Helex; and upgraded Eurobank. Plus, we re-visited GEK, reiterating OI and replacing its soon-to-be-delisted RES subsidiary, Terna Energy.