OPAP reported solid Q1 results with GGR/ EBITDA/net income at E595m/E207m/E123m or +8%/+8%/+10% yoy. Driven by +5% GGR growth in offline and +19% yoy GGR growth in online. Judging from total online GGR growth at +16% yoy in Q1 (regulator), OPAP enjoyed a higher market share in online. Management reiterated full year targets for low single digit GGR growth and EBITDA margin at 35% (flat yoy).

OPAP reported a strong set of Q4 results with GGR/adj EBITDA/adj net income of E648m/E245m/E130m or +11%/+24%/+19% yoy and +7%/+14%/-15% vs our estimates. Driven by a better payout and customer engagement in sports betting, in both offline and online, plus lower opex.

This is our BoP Greek equities briefing. We have not made many changes compared to our semi-annual one in July: we downgraded Alpha and Helex; and upgraded Eurobank. Plus, we re-visited GEK, reiterating OI and replacing its soon-to-be-delisted RES subsidiary, Terna Energy.

What’s new? OPAP reported Q2 results, with strong, Euro cup driven, online GGR (+33% yoy) covering for the land-based weakness (-1%) and pushing total GGR higher by +7% yoy. Higher marketing costs (+43%), spent on the Euro cup and the Euro jackpot, took a toll with clean EBITDA +3% yoy and clean net income -2% yoy. In line with its dividend policy, OPAP announced an E0.60 interim DPS, paying out the entire clean earnings of H1 or 96% of reported earnings.

In this Food 4 Thought note we look at OPAP’s 15YRS lottery license renewal in Cyprus, announced on June 26: a) is the new deal better or worse than the previous one? and b) is there any readthrough for the renewal of the Greek license (offline) expiring in 2030?
Better or worse? It is positive OPAP renewed (compared to losing the license) but the new terms are worse than before: the GGR tax rate rose to 22.5% (from an effective 17%) and the annual license fee stands at E4.2m (from zero), with the one for 2024 already paid. We estimate EBITDA and net income will be going down by 60%-70%, albeit by a milder 20% if the intercompany fee stays the same.