Ahead of the Q3 reporting season, which kicks off on Oct 29, we revisit Greek banks’ Q2 performance, sector valuations and RoTE waterfalls, alongside recent developments.
NII/PPP core/Net income before one-offs came in +0.4%/+2.1%/+2.3% above NBG’s own compiled consensus. Fees were +4% better. RoTE clean post AT1 at 14.9% (RG calcs) from 16.2% in Q1, mainly due to trading income volatility. CET1 at 17.3% (flat). CoR <40bps with NPEs at 2.3%. Net credit expansion at 1.4bn in Q2 from E0.5bn in…
NII came in 1.5% above NBG’s own compiled consensus while fees were 1.7% weaker, resulting in a 1% beat at core PPP level. Trading income was significantly stronger than expected, driving a >10% beat at the reported bottom line.
Q4 marked a strong close to 2025, with PPP flat to above our estimates on: robust volume; NII edging slightly higher qoq; strong fees; contained CoR => RoTE trending higher. Payout ratios were confirmed and/or raised. Banks are guiding for sustained loan growth and a steeper base-rate curve to lift RoTE > 16% in 2027–28….
15%-25% upside from current levels. We estimate systemic Greek banks have +15%-25% further upside from current levels, based on 14.7% RoTE (from 13.8%*; avg systemic banks), 10% CoE (from 12%) and 0% tg (unchanged). Lowering CoE was long overdue (we had done it only for BoC). The implied -market assigned- CoE is already there (see…