NII came in 1.5% above NBG’s own compiled consensus while fees were 1.7% weaker, resulting in a 1% beat at core PPP level. Trading income was significantly stronger than expected, driving a >10% beat at the reported bottom line.

Q4 marked a strong close to 2025, with PPP flat to above our estimates on: robust volume; NII edging slightly higher qoq; strong fees; contained CoR => RoTE trending higher. Payout ratios were confirmed and/or raised.

Banks are guiding for sustained loan growth and a steeper base-rate curve to lift RoTE > 16% in 2027–28. 2026 is viewed as a transition year, with average Euribor 25–30bps lower yoy and bolt-on acquisitions being integrated, leaving RoTE broadly flat or slightly below 2025 levels.

15%-25% upside from current levels. We estimate systemic Greek banks have +15%-25% further upside from current levels, based on 14.7% RoTE (from 13.8%*; avg systemic banks), 10% CoE (from 12%) and 0% tg (unchanged). Lowering CoE was long overdue (we had done it only for BoC). The implied -market assigned- CoE is already there (see table below).

Q3 core earnings in line with NBG’s own compiled consensus, as -1.7% lower fees were offset by -8.1% lower CoR; NII/PPP/core net income moved by -0.8%/-3.8%/-8.4% qoq, on our calculations. Loan growth (9M +E1.8bn) and lower deposit cost supported NII in Q3, with management calling it the trough, assuming no more ECB rate cuts.

Q2 NII was broadly in line with consensus while stronger fees pushed PPP +1.7% to +4.6% above estimates. Lending was stronger qoq (Interest earning Stage loans +E4.2bn in Q2 from +E1.6bn in Q1), prompting banks to revise their FY 2025 loan targets higher and making sure NII sensitivity to 25bps-50bps further ECB rate cuts remains manageable. Themes in Q2…