Q1 2026 results were mixed, with NII & fees in line with bank’s own compiled consensus but with trading losses causing a -6.5% miss in PPP. Bottom line was helped by lower impairments with net income at E281m (flat yoy, -14% qoq) and RoTE at 14.6%. CET1 down 10bps at 12.6% on loan growth (-40bps) and 57% payout-accrual (-50bps) vs retained earnings (+80bps).

Q4 marked a strong close to 2025, with PPP flat to above our estimates on: robust volume; NII edging slightly higher qoq; strong fees; contained CoR => RoTE trending higher. Payout ratios were confirmed and/or raised.

Banks are guiding for sustained loan growth and a steeper base-rate curve to lift RoTE > 16% in 2027–28. 2026 is viewed as a transition year, with average Euribor 25–30bps lower yoy and bolt-on acquisitions being integrated, leaving RoTE broadly flat or slightly below 2025 levels.

15%-25% upside from current levels. We estimate systemic Greek banks have +15%-25% further upside from current levels, based on 14.7% RoTE (from 13.8%*; avg systemic banks), 10% CoE (from 12%) and 0% tg (unchanged). Lowering CoE was long overdue (we had done it only for BoC). The implied -market assigned- CoE is already there (see table below).

Q3 results (NII, fees, PPP, clean net*) came in broadly in line with Piraeus’s own compiled consensus. On a qoq basis, NII/PPP/clean net income* moved by -0.5%/-0.8%/+1.8% respectively. RoTE 2025 was revised higher to 15% (from 14% and vs 13.8%/14.6% in Q3/9M) as new loans are now expected to exceed E3.5bn (from >E3.0bn) and reported EPS >E0.80 (from c. E0.80). Management remains upbeat on volume growth.

Q2 NII was broadly in line with consensus while stronger fees pushed PPP +1.7% to +4.6% above estimates. Lending was stronger qoq (Interest earning Stage loans +E4.2bn in Q2 from +E1.6bn in Q1), prompting banks to revise their FY 2025 loan targets higher and making sure NII sensitivity to 25bps-50bps further ECB rate cuts remains manageable. Themes in Q2…