Q1 2026 NII/PPP/net came in above the bank’s own compiled consensus. More so in NII and PPP terms. RoTE at 15%. CET1 down 20bps qoq at 15.4% on retained earnings offsetting most (but not all) of the asset growth, payout accrual, accelerated DTC amortization and M2M of debt securities classified as FVOCI. Net credit at +E1.1bn or +10% yoy.

Q4 marked a strong close to 2025, with PPP flat to above our estimates on: robust volume; NII edging slightly higher qoq; strong fees; contained CoR => RoTE trending higher. Payout ratios were confirmed and/or raised.

Banks are guiding for sustained loan growth and a steeper base-rate curve to lift RoTE > 16% in 2027–28. 2026 is viewed as a transition year, with average Euribor 25–30bps lower yoy and bolt-on acquisitions being integrated, leaving RoTE broadly flat or slightly below 2025 levels.

15%-25% upside from current levels. We estimate systemic Greek banks have +15%-25% further upside from current levels, based on 14.7% RoTE (from 13.8%*; avg systemic banks), 10% CoE (from 12%) and 0% tg (unchanged). Lowering CoE was long overdue (we had done it only for BoC). The implied -market assigned- CoE is already there (see table below).

There were no surprises in Q3 results. NII, fees and PPP stood +0.9%-1.4% above the bank’s own compiled consensus. On a qoq basis, NII/PPP/clean net income* declined by -0.1%/-1.9%/-3.7% respectively. Management indicated that…

Q2 NII was broadly in line with consensus while stronger fees pushed PPP +1.7% to +4.6% above estimates. Lending was stronger qoq (Interest earning Stage loans +E4.2bn in Q2 from +E1.6bn in Q1), prompting banks to revise their FY 2025 loan targets higher and making sure NII sensitivity to 25bps-50bps further ECB rate cuts remains manageable. Themes in Q2…