Ahead of the Q3 reporting season, which kicks off on Oct 29, we revisit Greek banks’ Q2 performance, sector valuations and RoTE waterfalls, alongside recent developments.
Q2 NII/COP/net income before one-offs came in +0.9%/+0.6%/+11% vs the bank’s own compiled consensus. Higher trading and income from associates explain the deviation in the bottom line. As well as the +310bps qoq increase in RoTE (post AT1). Net credit expansion of E1.6bn with net loans +9% yoy. CET1 at 14.7% (-10bps qoq).
Q1 2026 NII/PPP/net came in above the bank’s own compiled consensus. More so in NII and PPP terms. RoTE at 15%. CET1 down 20bps qoq at 15.4% on retained earnings offsetting most (but not all) of the asset growth, payout accrual, accelerated DTC amortization and M2M of debt securities classified as FVOCI. Net credit at +E1.1bn…
Q4 marked a strong close to 2025, with PPP flat to above our estimates on: robust volume; NII edging slightly higher qoq; strong fees; contained CoR => RoTE trending higher. Payout ratios were confirmed and/or raised. Banks are guiding for sustained loan growth and a steeper base-rate curve to lift RoTE > 16% in 2027–28….
15%-25% upside from current levels. We estimate systemic Greek banks have +15%-25% further upside from current levels, based on 14.7% RoTE (from 13.8%*; avg systemic banks), 10% CoE (from 12%) and 0% tg (unchanged). Lowering CoE was long overdue (we had done it only for BoC). The implied -market assigned- CoE is already there (see…