MOH reported Q4 clean EBITDA of E174m, down 49% yoy, and -19% below our estimates. Volume at 3.2m tn, broadly in line, given the refinery operated below capacity following the fire incident. We expected a stronger refining margin than $9/bbl. FCFE at half our forecast, with net debt ending the year at E1.7bn. Total DPS of E1.40 (E155m or >6.5% yield) including E0.30 paid as interim, exceeded our expectations.

This is our BoP Greek equities briefing. We have not made many changes compared to our semi-annual one in July: we downgraded Alpha and Helex; and upgraded Eurobank. Plus, we re-visited GEK, reiterating OI and replacing its soon-to-be-delisted RES subsidiary, Terna Energy.

The only good thing about MOH’s performance in 2024 is that soon it will be 2025…

MOH Q2 results were much stronger than what benchmark refining margins implied for the quarter. This is thanks to stronger gasoline vol & cracks and the higher naphtha-gasoline spread compared to Q1. The latter is not in benchmark margins (or Helleniq).

In a rather unexpected move, today the government announced another windfall tax on refineries, this time on 2023 excess earnings. The local press says the government estimates it will collect E300m from both refineries. This compares with E625m collected from the windfall tax on 2022 excess earnings (Ε358m MOH; E267m Helleniq). Assuming the formula has not changed (33% tax rate applied on 2018-2021 average pre-tax refining earnings marked up by 20%), we struggle to reconcile the E300m combined impact. This only adds to the confusion. We estimate…