Adjusted for MOH’s insurance compensation and Helleniq’s Elefsina shutdown, Q2 refining EBITDA came in stronger qoq, thanks to stronger gasoline and jet cracks. The weak(er) USD and the weak renewables performance took away part of this strength.

On Jul 10, GEK and MOH announced plans to merge their thermal generation assets and retail/supply operations into a single entity, with each company holding a 50% stake (equity consolidated*). MOH will pay GEK E128m in cash, which we assume is to equalize the transaction, as GEK is contributing higher-value assets.

MOH reported Q4 clean EBITDA of E174m, down 49% yoy, and -19% below our estimates. Volume at 3.2m tn, broadly in line, given the refinery operated below capacity following the fire incident. We expected a stronger refining margin than $9/bbl. FCFE at half our forecast, with net debt ending the year at E1.7bn. Total DPS of E1.40 (E155m or >6.5% yield) including E0.30 paid as interim, exceeded our expectations.

This is our BoP Greek equities briefing. We have not made many changes compared to our semi-annual one in July: we downgraded Alpha and Helex; and upgraded Eurobank. Plus, we re-visited GEK, reiterating OI and replacing its soon-to-be-delisted RES subsidiary, Terna Energy.

The only good thing about MOH’s performance in 2024 is that soon it will be 2025…