Q1 NII/PPP/RoTE AT1 at E186m/E158m/16.8% (RGe) marked a solid start for 2025 compared to BoC’s full year targets. These were maintained despite the 20bps-25bps lower forward rate curve, on the back of stronger volumes and additional hedging.

Q4 earnings were +10% better than our estimate on stronger NII and fees offsetting higher REMU impairments. Q4 RoTE came in at 17% with FY at 20% (avg TBV, post AT1). Management announced a 50% payout or E241m/10% yield will be paid to shareholders out of 2024 earnings, o/w E30m via share buy-backs. The payout is set for 50%-70% for next year with reported RoTE at mid-teens on 2.3% avg Euribor rate.

This is our BoP Greek equities briefing. We have not made many changes compared to our semi-annual one in July: we downgraded Alpha and Helex; and upgraded Eurobank. Plus, we re-visited GEK, reiterating OI and replacing its soon-to-be-delisted RES subsidiary, Terna Energy.

Q3 RoTE came in at c.20% which is app 300bps lower than Q1 and Q2 only because of VRS and Athex re-listing expenses booked in the quarter. Not bad given Euribor was 45bps lower since the beginning of the year. Management did not update 2025 guidance (will do in Q4), but their reference to sustainable mid-teen RoTE over the medium term, on normalized rates of 2.0%-2.5%, is enough for…

It did not come as a surprise that BoC raised its FY 2024 RoTE guidance to >24% from >17% following Q2 results (we were expecting this ever since Q1). Thanks to higher-than-initially-budgeted ECB/Euribor rates and unchanged deposits economics, NII/PPP/Net income stayed broadly flat in Q2 with RoTE at 30%*.