Q1 2026 NII/PPP/Net income came in at E181m/E143m/E103m or -2.6%/-9.5%/-8.2% yoy on our recurring/clean estimates. QoQ, NII declined by -1.1%, PPP increased by +3.6% and net income +11.8%.

RoTE stood at 14.6% (post AT1) or 18.8% on 15% CET1. We assume a 30bps normalized loan CoR in the quarter, which does not include a customer specific reversal or an extra charge of E5.7m/21bps related to updated macro assumptions.

Q4 marked a strong close to 2025, with PPP flat to above our estimates on: robust volume; NII edging slightly higher qoq; strong fees; contained CoR => RoTE trending higher. Payout ratios were confirmed and/or raised.

Banks are guiding for sustained loan growth and a steeper base-rate curve to lift RoTE > 16% in 2027–28. 2026 is viewed as a transition year, with average Euribor 25–30bps lower yoy and bolt-on acquisitions being integrated, leaving RoTE broadly flat or slightly below 2025 levels.

15%-25% upside from current levels. We estimate systemic Greek banks have +15%-25% further upside from current levels, based on 14.7% RoTE (from 13.8%*; avg systemic banks), 10% CoE (from 12%) and 0% tg (unchanged). Lowering CoE was long overdue (we had done it only for BoC). The implied -market assigned- CoE is already there (see table below).

Despite an 11bps decline in the average Euribor rate, BoC delivered nearly flat NII in Q3 qoq (-11.5% yoy/-155bps Euribor), supported by new loan production (YTD), structural and natural hedging, and lower deposit costs. Fees remained stable, while higher opex and a flat loan CoR shaped the bottom line, which decreased by 4% qoq (excl. major one-offs). RoTE AT1 stood at 16.0% from 16.5% in Q2.

Q2 NII/PPP/RoTE AT1 (excl trading gains, post AT1) at E182m/E148m/16.5% showed a more resilient run-rate than our FY 2025 forecasts and BoC’s targets. NII dropped -2.2% qoq (-12.1% yoy), as the impact from lower ECB (-54bps) and Euribor (-45bps) rates was offset by structural (>E5bn, 70% of cash, at 2.8% yield) and natural (1/3 of net loans) hedges.