We incorporate PPC’s E4bn SCI and updated E24bn/5YR business plan into our model. Our analysis focuses on the integrated business (generation & supply), which is expected to contribute E3.3bn, or 72% of total guided EBITDA by 2030 (E4.6bn).

Q4 adjusted EBITDA of E376m (-19% YoY) came in 34% below our estimates but was sufficient to secure FY guidance of E2.0bn EBITDA and E0.4bn adjusted net income. The DPS of E0.60 (vs. E0.40 in 2024) was also in line with guidance.

Q3 EBITDA at E674m (+60% yoy) was strong as Distribution recovered and the Integrated GR spread remained at c. E50/MWh. The latter seems the base case if current DAM and supply economics do not change; going higher once additional RES enter the mix. During yesterday’s Investor Day management…

Q2 EBITDA at E543m (+16% yoy) reversed the slower run-rate witnessed in Q1 (E453m) towards hitting FY 2025 guidance of E2.0bn. We estimate this was driven by a) higher retail (supply) margin thanks to bigger volumes bought wholesale at lower prices (DAM) and b) higher RES contribution and lower nat gas and CO2 costs benefiting own generation.

Q1 2025 EBITDA at E450m (-1.3% yoy) was below expectations on lower hydro (GR), wind factors (GR, ROM) and tariff delays in distribution (ROM). But management reiterated FY target for E2.0bn (+10% yoy), apparently anticipating the following quarters will make up for the lost ground. e have no reason to believe otherwise. Therefore…