Q1 2025 EBITDA at E450m (-1.3% yoy) was below expectations on lower hydro (GR), wind factors (GR, ROM) and tariff delays in distribution (ROM). But management reiterated FY target for E2.0bn (+10% yoy), apparently anticipating the following quarters will make up for the lost ground. e have no reason to believe otherwise. Therefore…

This is our BoP Greek equities briefing. We have not made many changes compared to our semi-annual one in July: we downgraded Alpha and Helex; and upgraded Eurobank. Plus, we re-visited GEK, reiterating OI and replacing its soon-to-be-delisted RES subsidiary, Terna Energy.

PPC reported Q3 results in line with expectations and guidance towards hitting E1.8bn clean EBITDA in FY 2024. But the focus was on the Investor Day held the day after (Nov 14), where management confirmed January’s RES strategy & investments and added 2027 as a target year for E2.7bn of EBITDA and E1.0 DPS (c. 8% yield at the current price). We were disappointed they did not use the event to…

Q2/H1 clean EBITDA of E0.47bn/ E0.92bn in line with management’s guidance for E1.8bn for the full year. We have the distribution business to thank for that, as it accounted for c. 45% of the total number, and 60% of the delta vs H1 2023. Management sounded upbeat while announcing a new 629MW (600MW wind) acquisition in Romania, which comes on top of the business plan communicated earlier in the year.

This note was supposed to be about Q4/FY 2023 results released on Apr 9 (Q4 PPC defined recurring EBITDA came in +13% vs our estimate). Instead, it will be about us downgrading our rating to DO NOT OWN IT (DOI) on the back of the E2bn/2GW solar deal with Mytilineos.
Why the downgrade? Because the implied cost of this deal does not make sense; it is much higher than PPC’s own installations or projects under development; it is higher than any of the recent solar projects we have seen; PPC does not need it; and it does not maximize shareholder value.