Management confirmed it is experiencing several positive catalysts YTD: Q1 sales are +8% yoy; freight rates are down (and should be heading lower); the EUR/USD rate is +10% stronger; and Chinese products should be getting cheaper for non-US buyers. This explains why it will propose not to pay a dividend out of 2024, favoring buying back shares and/or stocking up inventory as an alternative use of money for shareholders. We expect the second option will be the main use of cash given shares are trading above the max buy-back limit of E27.2, and management has no intention of raising it.

January trading showed +11% yoy sales growth, a (double-digit) rate not seen since May 2024, with Greece +15% yoy, CY +3%, BUL +2% and ROM +5% yoy. Jumbo said a good part of this growth came from sales to franchisees, which operated 3 more stores vs Jan last year (o/w one in Israel). These are in 7 countries north of Greece*. We are left guessing their exact impact.

This is our BoP Greek equities briefing. We have not made many changes compared to our semi-annual one in July: we downgraded Alpha and Helex; and upgraded Eurobank. Plus, we re-visited GEK, reiterating OI and replacing its soon-to-be-delisted RES subsidiary, Terna Energy.

Jumbo released September sales growth at +6% yoy with the 9M growth rate at +7%. For FY sales guidance of +4% to prove correct, Q4 sales must drop by c. -1.5% yoy. We consider this unlikely given the growth witnessed so far, two hyper-stores opening in October (both in capital cities, Bucharest, and Nicosia) and with China/East Asia – MED freight rates back to April levels, having dropped -13% last week and -44% since their peak in early August. Jumbo typically generates…

Jumbo released the trading update for June, showing sales +9% yoy, shaping the H1 rate at +8% yoy. This run rate is in line with full year guidance for 8%-10% growth in sales and earnings. But the real news came from management’s update on transportation and Red Sea supply chain issues, saying the disruption has not changed, freight rates have gone up and delivery times have doubled.