FY 2025 sales/EBITDA/net income at E1.23bn/E436m/E320m (+7.2%/+5.5%/+3.5% yoy L4L) came in line with our estimates. Earnings did not deviate from company guidance (sales were already disclosed). Management reiterated its 2026 outlook, guiding for sales growth of +5% yoy (Q1 +7.3% yoy) and net income of E310m-E320m, pointing to another year of flat earnings. We understand this is a conservative budget.

Despite several positive developments since the start of the year, the share price appears range-bound at E27–E28/share. It is 16% below its August peak and up 7% YTD, significantly underperforming the Athens Index (+43%). Key tailwinds so far this year include:

Judging from the lower margin/flattish earnings performance in H1 and management comments in the conference call that followed, we conclude Jumbo is playing defense. Threats being competition, political turmoil, weak disposable incomes, geopolitical uncertainty. Allies being the weaker USD, lower freight costs, and stronger wholesale trading.

July trading showed sales growing at +9% yoy with the YTD rate maintained at +8% yoy after yet another month. Greece was up +10% yoy in July (7M +9%), Cyprus +13% (7M +8%), Bulgaria +2% (7M +2%) and Romania +7% (7M +7%). Still no full year guidance. What stands out is…

Management confirmed it is experiencing several positive catalysts YTD: Q1 sales are +8% yoy; freight rates are down (and should be heading lower); the EUR/USD rate is +10% stronger; and Chinese products should be getting cheaper for non-US buyers. This explains why it will propose not to pay a dividend out of 2024, favoring buying back shares and/or stocking up inventory as an alternative use of money for shareholders. We expect the second option will be the main use of cash given shares are trading above the max buy-back limit of E27.2, and management has no intention of raising it.