We underestimated Kri-Kri’s sales growth potential. Sales CAGR reached +17% in 2015-25, accelerating to +24% in 2022-25, driven mainly by foreign yoghurt sales. The company is struggling to keep up with demand in the UK and Italy, while also launching frozen yoghurt products in the US (H-E-B and Kroger) and China (Walmart Sam’s Club).

Q2 sales +22% higher yoy (all volume) continued their strong double-digit expansion thanks to foreign sales of yogurt (+40% yoy, o/w UK >56% yoy and ITA  >19% yoy) and ice-cream (+27% yoy), whereas EBITDA/net income declined -21%/-37% yoy on higher input costs/milk (COGS +37% yoy, raw milk +5%-15% yoy), shift to private label, higher opex (+22%) and a higher effective tax rate (+19ppt).

Q4 sales rose by +23% yoy thanks to strong foreign yogurt growth (+41%). But a combination of elevated raw material & payroll costs, along with lower yogurt prices in Greece, resulted in EBITDA and net losses of E1.4m and E1.8m, respectively. DPS at E0.40 on a 38% payout. Kri-Kri exceeded its FY sales guidance (E256m vs E245m) but fell short of its EBIT target (E37m vs E39m) as the EBIT margin settled 100bps lower than projected. Management anticipated maintaining a 14%-15% EBIT margin in 2025, implying +15%-20% EBIT growth, on +17% higher sales to E300m.

This is our BoP Greek equities briefing. We have not made many changes compared to our semi-annual one in July: we downgraded Alpha and Helex; and upgraded Eurobank. Plus, we re-visited GEK, reiterating OI and replacing its soon-to-be-delisted RES subsidiary, Terna Energy.

Kri-Kri reported Q3 sales/EBITDA/net income of E77m/E14m/E10m or +20%/+14%/+12% yoy thanks to foreign yogurt sales growing by +34% yoy. This performance confirms FY guidance for sales >E245m and EBIT margin at 16%. It also confirms the double-digit growth outlook of sales and earnings in 2025-2026, which is a sight for sore eyes in the low earnings growth Greek equity universe…