Ahead of the Q3 reporting season, which kicks off on Oct 29, we revisit Greek banks’ Q2 performance, sector valuations and RoTE waterfalls, alongside recent developments.
We revisit our stock picks and assess the political outlook ahead of the next parliamentary elections. Economic conditions remain solid with Q1 2026 real GDP up +2.0% yoy (consumption +1% yoy, tang investments +12%, exports +2%). But with the inflation rate in May accelerating to +5.2% yoy/+0.0% mom (food +3.5% yoy, clothing -0.9%, housing +11.6%,…
Q4 marked a strong close to 2025, with PPP flat to above our estimates on: robust volume; NII edging slightly higher qoq; strong fees; contained CoR => RoTE trending higher. Payout ratios were confirmed and/or raised. Banks are guiding for sustained loan growth and a steeper base-rate curve to lift RoTE > 16% in 2027–28….
15%-25% upside from current levels. We estimate systemic Greek banks have +15%-25% further upside from current levels, based on 14.7% RoTE (from 13.8%*; avg systemic banks), 10% CoE (from 12%) and 0% tg (unchanged). Lowering CoE was long overdue (we had done it only for BoC). The implied -market assigned- CoE is already there (see…
Q2 NII was broadly in line with consensus while stronger fees pushed PPP +1.7% to +4.6% above estimates. Lending was stronger qoq (Interest earning Stage loans +E4.2bn in Q2 from +E1.6bn in Q1), prompting banks to revise their FY 2025 loan targets higher and making sure NII sensitivity to 25bps-50bps further ECB rate cuts remains…