Greek Banks reported Q1 results last week. As expected, (L4L) NII and core PPP declined (-9% yoy/-5% qoq) on lower Euribor (-135bps/-45bps). The solid run rate on fees, lower time depos and -potentially- stronger loan volumes resulted in banks confirming FY targets, even if Euribor ends up 25bps lower than budgeted.

Greek economic growth and fiscal discipline support lending & fee expansion. Deposit dynamics and strong asset quality support organic earnings/capital generation. While accommodating for higher payouts, with buybacks contributing to EPS growth.

This is our BoP Greek equities briefing. We have not made many changes compared to our semi-annual one in July: we downgraded Alpha and Helex; and upgraded Eurobank. Plus, we re-visited GEK, reiterating OI and replacing its soon-to-be-delisted RES subsidiary, Terna Energy.

As if you have not received enough banking quarterly updates by now, we are sharing our own Sector Map, in which we have compiled the main Q1 numbers as reported by banks (adjusted by ourselves), side-by-side to make it super easy to compare and spot the differences. You will need to click on the excel file attached.
We outline the ones we think are the most notable in the bullets below. It would be great to compare notes, so please feel free to send over any points or questions you may have!

If you are attending (or not) the Greek Investment Conference in London on Nov 27-28, organized by ATHEX and Morgan Stanley, perhaps you will find this brief update useful. It is a short description of each investment case included in our universe.
Keep in mind: Greek equities are not expensive. Our universe (x-banks) is on 8.7x EPS, 5.4x EBITDA and 5.4% dividend yield (2024E). With RoE at 16% and cash flow conversion at c.60%. The govt says the economy will grow by 2.9%, primary surplus will reach 2.1% and debt/GDP 152%.

Q4 Sector Map confirms NBG as our top pick. Highest NII, NIM, PPPM; RoTE; CET1; S3 covg combined with lowest NPE%, CoR; ECB funding. Additionally, it recorded the biggest increase in S1 loans qoq / decrease in S2+3 loans. The bank benefits from a low time-deposit mix at 18% (vs 24%-34% peers), therefore enjoying a lower deposit beta (10% vs 12%-15% in Q3); We estimate NBG’s RoTE excludes c. E17m (or 100bps RoTE annualized) in opex (one-offs) which does not change the comparison.