As if you have not received enough banking quarterly updates by now, we are sharing our own Sector Map, in which we have compiled the main Q1 numbers as reported by banks (adjusted by ourselves), side-by-side to make it super easy to compare and spot the differences. You will need to click on the excel file attached.
We outline the ones we think are the most notable in the bullets below. It would be great to compare notes, so please feel free to send over any points or questions you may have!

If you are attending (or not) the Greek Investment Conference in London on Nov 27-28, organized by ATHEX and Morgan Stanley, perhaps you will find this brief update useful. It is a short description of each investment case included in our universe.
Keep in mind: Greek equities are not expensive. Our universe (x-banks) is on 8.7x EPS, 5.4x EBITDA and 5.4% dividend yield (2024E). With RoE at 16% and cash flow conversion at c.60%. The govt says the economy will grow by 2.9%, primary surplus will reach 2.1% and debt/GDP 152%.

Q4 Sector Map confirms NBG as our top pick. Highest NII, NIM, PPPM; RoTE; CET1; S3 covg combined with lowest NPE%, CoR; ECB funding. Additionally, it recorded the biggest increase in S1 loans qoq / decrease in S2+3 loans. The bank benefits from a low time-deposit mix at 18% (vs 24%-34% peers), therefore enjoying a lower deposit beta (10% vs 12%-15% in Q3); We estimate NBG’s RoTE excludes c. E17m (or 100bps RoTE annualized) in opex (one-offs) which does not change the comparison.

’If you cannot explain it simply, then you do not understand it well enough.’’ Testing ourselves, we share our understanding of each Greek investment case we cover within a few lines.
Conclusions: Our base case scenario is materializing, i.e., Mitsotakis administration renewing its mandate and Greece avoiding a recession. Equities have re-rated and are +36% YTD, so now…

The political risk has gone up following the train tragedy at Tempe on Feb 28. Elections moved forward by one month, Mitsotakis poll lead has come down to 3ppt (from 7-9ppt), and so have the chances of forming a one-party government in the second round.
Basic election math. Recent polls show Mitsotakis lead has narrowed down to 2-3ppt, managing 30-33% of the votes. Forming a government in the first round requires 45%* which drops down to 37-38%* in the second round thanks to bonus seats allocated to the first party.
Base case scenario. The above implies a) Greece will not avoid a second round and b) it will take more than one party to form a government. The base case is for the ruling party teaming up with KINAL, currently ranking third in polls at 9%-10%.

ResearchGreece Greek Politics_Election Date May 21