If you are attending (or not) the Greek Investment Conference in London on Nov 27-28, organized by ATHEX and Morgan Stanley, perhaps you will find this brief update useful. It is a short description of each investment case included in our universe.
Keep in mind: Greek equities are not expensive. Our universe (x-banks) is on 8.7x EPS, 5.4x EBITDA and 5.4% dividend yield (2024E). With RoE at 16% and cash flow conversion at c.60%. The govt says the economy will grow by 2.9%, primary surplus will reach 2.1% and debt/GDP 152%.

What’s new? After reviewing Q2/H1 results and several consumption data/indicators, we are skeptical about private spending capacity at current price levels. We find consumers have adjusted their purchases lower in volume terms. The post-Covid savings glut is exhausted, and fiscal support will be lower in 2024.
Conclusion. It seems corporates will have to choose between fewer sales or lower margins going forward. YTD volume spending data from super/hyper markets and shopping malls; electricity, fuels, and water consumption; demand for loans; retail trade… underline a common theme: volume growth is deteriorating.

The bank did not disclose important details that would allow us to assess the impact of its E7bn/29% of total NPE securitizations…contact@researchgreece.com

Further upside requires using discount rates <6% and/or new projects (concession, RES) not yet tendered. We conclude it makes more sense to own…contact@researchgreece.com

According to Greek mythology…