Q4 sales/EBITDA/net grew by +13%/+11%/+22% yoy on ADV of E169m (+25% yoy) but higher costs (+15% yoy, third party consulting fees) made sure EBITDA came in -7% below our estimates. DPS at E0.29 reflects a 100% payout and a 5.6% yield. The above is old news. 2025 has started off remarkably well with Q1 ADV at E187m (+26% yoy), on avg market cap at E112bn (+18% yoy), or 45% against GDP, driven mainly by banks re-rating towards 1.0x P/TBV 2025, and velocity at 40%.

This is our BoP Greek equities briefing. We have not made many changes compared to our semi-annual one in July: we downgraded Alpha and Helex; and upgraded Eurobank. Plus, we re-visited GEK, reiterating OI and replacing its soon-to-be-delisted RES subsidiary, Terna Energy.

Based on YTD trading data (Jan-Nov), we do not expect trading velocity will rise >35% in the coming years anymore. Unless market cap/GDP overshoots >40%, we fail to see how earnings will grow materially post 2024…

What’s new? Q2 2023 sales/EBITDA/net income came in E10.8m/E4.3/E3.2/ or +16%/+23%/+54% yoy, on ADV (already known) of E109m (+22% yoy). Trading velocity went down qoq at 32% (from 39% in Q1), despite the avg market cap rising by E8bn/+12% qoq (c.35% against mkt cap), partially attributed to the fewer trading in the quarter (59 from 63).
The most notable point comes from the cost side, with payroll rising by +23% yoy or +11% qoq, now at 56% of the total cost line (52% in H1 last year). The reason is +21 NoE /+9% more employees compared to last year and a part of the 2023 bonus included as a provision.

’If you cannot explain it simply, then you do not understand it well enough.’’ Testing ourselves, we share our understanding of each Greek investment case we cover within a few lines.
Conclusions: Our base case scenario is materializing, i.e., Mitsotakis administration renewing its mandate and Greece avoiding a recession. Equities have re-rated and are +36% YTD, so now…