Focusing on the big picture usually means we are not able to assess the small one, i.e. short/mid term financials. Indeed, this is the case with the grid operator (51% owned by listed ADMIE Holdings). RAB of E2.6bn in 2024, increases to E3.5bn by 2026 with Ariadne (Athens-Crete) and Cyclades D and to E6.2bn by 2031, with the rest of the Greek islands and Italy (net of subsidies and deprecation). We do not include Cyprus, S. Arabia or Egypt.

OPAP reported solid Q1 results with GGR/ EBITDA/net income at E595m/E207m/E123m or +8%/+8%/+10% yoy. Driven by +5% GGR growth in offline and +19% yoy GGR growth in online. Judging from total online GGR growth at +16% yoy in Q1 (regulator), OPAP enjoyed a higher market share in online. Management reiterated full year targets for low single digit GGR growth and EBITDA margin at 35% (flat yoy).

Q1 2025 EBITDA at E450m (-1.3% yoy) was below expectations on lower hydro (GR), wind factors (GR, ROM) and tariff delays in distribution (ROM). But management reiterated FY target for E2.0bn (+10% yoy), apparently anticipating the following quarters will make up for the lost ground. e have no reason to believe otherwise. Therefore…

Q1 NII/PPP/RoTE AT1 at E186m/E158m/16.8% (RGe) marked a solid start for 2025 compared to BoC’s full year targets. These were maintained despite the 20bps-25bps lower forward rate curve, on the back of stronger volumes and additional hedging.

Greek Banks reported Q1 results last week. As expected, (L4L) NII and core PPP declined (-9% yoy/-5% qoq) on lower Euribor (-135bps/-45bps). The solid run rate on fees, lower time depos and -potentially- stronger loan volumes resulted in banks confirming FY targets, even if Euribor ends up 25bps lower than budgeted.

Greek economic growth and fiscal discipline support lending & fee expansion. Deposit dynamics and strong asset quality support organic earnings/capital generation. While accommodating for higher payouts, with buybacks contributing to EPS growth.