We underestimated Kri-Kri’s sales growth potential. Sales CAGR reached +17% in 2015-25, accelerating to +24% in 2022-25, driven mainly by foreign yoghurt sales. The company is struggling to keep up with demand in the UK and Italy, while also launching frozen yoghurt products in the US (H-E-B and Kroger) and China (Walmart Sam’s Club).

Following on from our previous note on Dec 20th and the release of FY 2025 results, we now incorporate 2026–2029 RAB economics into our model. While EYDAP’s RAB assumptions appear robust on paper, we remain skeptical about their execution.

Following Credia Bank’s successful E300m capital increase (E280m net of expenses) and the issuance of 375m new shares (19% dilution), we revisit our valuation against the CMD financial targets announced on March 9. These incorporate a 70% stake in HSBC Malta on a pro forma basis, with first-time consolidation expected in 2027.

Q1 2026 results were mixed, with NII & fees in line with bank’s own compiled consensus but with trading losses causing a -6.5% miss in PPP. Bottom line was helped by lower impairments with net income at E281m (flat yoy, -14% qoq) and RoTE at 14.6%. CET1 down 10bps at 12.6% on loan growth (-40bps) and 57% payout-accrual (-50bps) vs retained earnings (+80bps).

FY 2025 sales/EBITDA/net income at E1.23bn/E436m/E320m (+7.2%/+5.5%/+3.5% yoy L4L) came in line with our estimates. Earnings did not deviate from company guidance (sales were already disclosed). Management reiterated its 2026 outlook, guiding for sales growth of +5% yoy (Q1 +7.3% yoy) and net income of E310m-E320m, pointing to another year of flat earnings. We understand this is a conservative budget.