Following Q4/FY results, which beat our EBITDA estimates by +23/+5% driven by stronger contribution from construction, we raise our 2026-2028 EBITDA estimates by 4%-6% We increase our PT to E41 (from E31), but downgrade our rating to DO NOT OWN IT (DOI), as we struggle to see sufficient upside from current levels.

We believe Fourlis business strategy makes sense. Both in execution and in rolling back the initiatives that underperform. Opening additional IKEA stores in Greece, re-strategizing on the HB rollout, modernizing Intersport stores and simplifying the EBITDA reporting and breakdown. Our verdict remains open about Foot Locker, where the company is moving quickly with store openings in GR-BUL-ROM.

Q4 adjusted EBITDA of E376m (-19% YoY) came in 34% below our estimates but was sufficient to secure FY guidance of E2.0bn EBITDA and E0.4bn adjusted net income. The DPS of E0.60 (vs. E0.40 in 2024) was also in line with guidance.

Shares have underperformed the Athens Index (-14.6% vs -9.3%) in the last month and ever since the US-ISR-IRAN conflict. We believe due to a combination of Q4/FY numbers and geopolitically induced cost inflation concerns. Titan’s nearest ‘physical’ exposure in the region (Turkey, Egypt – East Med) contributed 10% of EBITDA in 2025.

Q4 followed the same pattern as the previous two quarters -lower sales, higher EBITDA margin- yet it was not enough to ensure the company would meet its FY guidance. Results fell short of our Q4 estimates too, by 5% at the sales level and 15% at the EBIT line.