Q4/FY adjusted numbers included E100m insurance compensation. Excluding this, Q4/FY EBITDA at E173m (-35% yoy)/E926m (-25% yoy) was below our estimates by -20%/-5%; bottom line was in the red by E50m/E40m. We understand earnings will not recover in 2025 given the two scheduled shutdowns in Elefsina and Aspropyrgos refineries, even if margins move higher yoy.

Eurobank, Alpha and NBG reported Q4 results last week. And provided new guidance for 2025-2027. High single-digit loan growth, fee expansion, hedging, and low CoR will mitigate the impact from lower rates. With RoTE settling at 14%-15% for NBG and Eurobank; 13%-14% for Piraeus; and 11%-12% for Alpha (guidance).

AIA reported +11% growth in clean FY 2024 net income; confirmed a 100% payout ratio (E236m/9% yield); and announced (up to E240m) capital increase by 2028 to expedite /co-finance its terminal expansion program while lifting its regulatory capital.

Q4 results were in line, with adj EBITDAL +1.0% yoy (Greece +1.8% yoy). FY cash flow came in slightly better (E440m from E435m guided). Guidance for 2025 was rather uninspiring:  Greek adj EBITDA +2.0% yoy, reported FCFE at E460m, distribution at E451m (E298m/E153m cash/buyback). TRM is burning E70m of cash p.a.

Q4 earnings were +10% better than our estimate on stronger NII and fees offsetting higher REMU impairments. Q4 RoTE came in at 17% with FY at 20% (avg TBV, post AT1). Management announced a 50% payout or E241m/10% yield will be paid to shareholders out of 2024 earnings, o/w E30m via share buy-backs. The payout is set for 50%-70% for next year with reported RoTE at mid-teens on 2.3% avg Euribor rate.