Q4 marked a strong close to 2025, with PPP flat to above our estimates on: robust volume; NII edging slightly higher qoq; strong fees; contained CoR => RoTE trending higher. Payout ratios were confirmed and/or raised.
Banks are guiding for sustained loan growth and a steeper base-rate curve to lift RoTE > 16% in 2027–28. 2026 is viewed as a transition year, with average Euribor 25–30bps lower yoy and bolt-on acquisitions being integrated, leaving RoTE broadly flat or slightly below 2025 levels.
Q4 revenues/adj EBITDA(L)/adj net income came in +8.7%/+2.3%/+1.8% yoy with reported FCF at E168m (adj at E172m and +9% vs RGe). Adj EBITDA(L) in line with our estimate (E351m vs E350m) while revenues +6% higher on stronger fixed revenues.
15%-25% upside from current levels. We estimate systemic Greek banks have +15%-25% further upside from current levels, based on 14.7% RoTE (from 13.8%*; avg systemic banks), 10% CoE (from 12%) and 0% tg (unchanged). Lowering CoE was long overdue (we had done it only for BoC). The implied -market assigned- CoE is already there (see table below).
Avoiding EU maritime emission costs means the TEU drop in Piers 2 and 3, operated by Cosco, continued in November. This time it was a milder -17% yoy drop vs the ones witnessed in August to October. But big enough to make us revisit our H2/FY 2025 numbers given that Piers 2&3 contribute 35% of sales and 55% of EBITDA.
One month ago, Titan unveiled its 2029 Forward Strategy (Investor Day, Nov 11th), centered on leveraging plant proximity to ports and urban areas and expanding the use of ACMs, both organically and via M&A (see our note ‘Who Said Cement Companies Are Boring? On Nov 17th). On Dec 11th, Titan announced the 100% acquisition of Tracim Cement in Turkey (2.5 mtpa) for a cash consideration of
