In this RG Equities Blog, we reaffirm our positive ratings and top picks, update several of our models following Q3 results, and highlight what we view as the key buffers for each of the stocks under coverage.

Despite several positive developments since the start of the year, the share price appears range-bound at E27–E28/share. It is 16% below its August peak and up 7% YTD, significantly underperforming the Athens Index (+43%). Key tailwinds so far this year include:

Q3 sales/cash EBITDA/net income (x-Trade Estates contribution) went up by +15%/+20%/+47% yoy. IKEA sales/EBITDA grew +7%/+15% yoy; Sport goods sales/EBITDA went up +31%/+94% yoy. Both business sectors include new stores. Management reiterated its FY guidance for E600m in sales and E38m in cash EBITDA. This requires sales to grow by +22% and EBITDA by +60% yoy in Q4. This appers demanding…

Q3 GGR/EBITDA/net came in at +6%/-1%/+3% yoy with operating costs growing +20% yoy. Lotteries (+10%) and VLTs (+11%) covered for the muted online growth (+3%; o/w betting -8% on higher payout). Management reiterated full year guidance for low-single digit GGR growth and 35% EBITDA margin, which implies…

Q3 EBITDA at E674m (+60% yoy) was strong as Distribution recovered and the Integrated GR spread remained at c. E50/MWh. The latter seems the base case if current DAM and supply economics do not change; going higher once additional RES enter the mix. During yesterday’s Investor Day management…