Q3 results were strong (trading update Nov 6) with revenues/EBITDA/net income up +3%/+20%/+33% yoy, supported by strong sales growth in Greece (W. Europe) and a remarkable margin uplift in the US & East Med. But this was overshadowed by management’s guidance in the Investor Day (Nov 11), which targets 2025-29 CAGR of 6–8% for revenues and 11–13% for EBITDA, with EPS reaching E5-E6 (from 9M LTM of E4.3); driven by…

Q3 revenues/adj EBITDA(L)/adj net income came in +5.0%/+2.0%/-2.0% yoy at E874m/E360m/E170m, with reported FCF at E108m (adj at E115m). The figures are without recently sold TRM. EBITDA growth is in line with OTE’s FY guidance, while the 2025 FCF target has been restated on a pro-forma basis to exclude TRM, now set at E530m (from €460m). The adjustment reflects…

Despite an 11bps decline in the average Euribor rate, BoC delivered nearly flat NII in Q3 qoq (-11.5% yoy/-155bps Euribor), supported by new loan production (YTD), structural and natural hedging, and lower deposit costs. Fees remained stable, while higher opex and a flat loan CoR shaped the bottom line, which decreased by 4% qoq (excl. major one-offs). RoTE AT1 stood at 16.0% from 16.5% in Q2.

Q3 NII/fees/core PPP (x-trading income) came in -0.9%/+2.3%/-0.8% vs Alpha’s own compiled consensus. NII was +0.7% qoq, fees -1.6% qoq and PPP excl trading -3.8% qoq on lower other operating income. Net loan growth of +E2.2bn (9M), flat bond income and lower funding cost helped NII to overcome the 10bps drop in avg Euribor rate (qoq) and move slightly up vs Q2; Q3 RoTE (post AT1, x-trading, avg TBV) at 10.4% from 11.0% in Q2 due to slightly higher impairments (+E5m) and LME losses (-E13m, Tier 2).

Q3 core earnings in line with NBG’s own compiled consensus, as -1.7% lower fees were offset by -8.1% lower CoR; NII/PPP/core net income moved by -0.8%/-3.8%/-8.4% qoq, on our calculations. Loan growth (9M +E1.8bn) and lower deposit cost supported NII in Q3, with management calling it the trough, assuming no more ECB rate cuts.