Q4/FY adjusted numbers included E100m insurance compensation. Excluding this, Q4/FY EBITDA at E173m (-35% yoy)/E926m (-25% yoy) was below our estimates by -20%/-5%; bottom line was in the red by E50m/E40m. We understand earnings will not recover in 2025 given the two scheduled shutdowns in Elefsina and Aspropyrgos refineries, even if margins move higher yoy.

This is our BoP Greek equities briefing. We have not made many changes compared to our semi-annual one in July: we downgraded Alpha and Helex; and upgraded Eurobank. Plus, we re-visited GEK, reiterating OI and replacing its soon-to-be-delisted RES subsidiary, Terna Energy.

Helleniq Energy reported $11/bbl refining margin in Q3, down from $13 in Q2 and $18 in Q1. Lower demand for diesel and new refining capacity ramp-up resulted in…

MOH Q2 results were much stronger than what benchmark refining margins implied for the quarter. This is thanks to stronger gasoline vol & cracks and the higher naphtha-gasoline spread compared to Q1. The latter is not in benchmark margins (or Helleniq).

In a rather unexpected move, today the government announced another windfall tax on refineries, this time on 2023 excess earnings. The local press says the government estimates it will collect E300m from both refineries. This compares with E625m collected from the windfall tax on 2022 excess earnings (Ε358m MOH; E267m Helleniq). Assuming the formula has not changed (33% tax rate applied on 2018-2021 average pre-tax refining earnings marked up by 20%), we struggle to reconcile the E300m combined impact. This only adds to the confusion. We estimate…