Q4 marked a strong close to 2025, with PPP flat to above our estimates on: robust volume; NII edging slightly higher qoq; strong fees; contained CoR => RoTE trending higher. Payout ratios were confirmed and/or raised.

Banks are guiding for sustained loan growth and a steeper base-rate curve to lift RoTE > 16% in 2027–28. 2026 is viewed as a transition year, with average Euribor 25–30bps lower yoy and bolt-on acquisitions being integrated, leaving RoTE broadly flat or slightly below 2025 levels.

15%-25% upside from current levels. We estimate systemic Greek banks have +15%-25% further upside from current levels, based on 14.7% RoTE (from 13.8%*; avg systemic banks), 10% CoE (from 12%) and 0% tg (unchanged). Lowering CoE was long overdue (we had done it only for BoC). The implied -market assigned- CoE is already there (see table below).

Q3 NII/fees/core PPP (x-trading income) came in -0.9%/+2.3%/-0.8% vs Alpha’s own compiled consensus. NII was +0.7% qoq, fees -1.6% qoq and PPP excl trading -3.8% qoq on lower other operating income. Net loan growth of +E2.2bn (9M), flat bond income and lower funding cost helped NII to overcome the 10bps drop in avg Euribor rate (qoq) and move slightly up vs Q2; Q3 RoTE (post AT1, x-trading, avg TBV) at 10.4% from 11.0% in Q2 due to slightly higher impairments (+E5m) and LME losses (-E13m, Tier 2).

Q2 NII was broadly in line with consensus while stronger fees pushed PPP +1.7% to +4.6% above estimates. Lending was stronger qoq (Interest earning Stage loans +E4.2bn in Q2 from +E1.6bn in Q1), prompting banks to revise their FY 2025 loan targets higher and making sure NII sensitivity to 25bps-50bps further ECB rate cuts remains manageable. Themes in Q2…

Greek Banks reported Q1 results last week. As expected, (L4L) NII and core PPP declined (-9% yoy/-5% qoq) on lower Euribor (-135bps/-45bps). The solid run rate on fees, lower time depos and -potentially- stronger loan volumes resulted in banks confirming FY targets, even if Euribor ends up 25bps lower than budgeted.

Greek economic growth and fiscal discipline support lending & fee expansion. Deposit dynamics and strong asset quality support organic earnings/capital generation. While accommodating for higher payouts, with buybacks contributing to EPS growth.