Alpha has agreed to buy Astrobank Cyprus (14 branches) for no less than E205m or at c.0.8x TBV 2024E. This multiple could go closer to 1.0x TBV if Astrobank’s net NPEs (E73m, to be carved out) take a hit on Astrobank’s equity. The acquisition is not included in Alpha Bank’s updated 2025-2027 guidance provided last week.

Eurobank, Alpha and NBG reported Q4 results last week. And provided new guidance for 2025-2027. High single-digit loan growth, fee expansion, hedging, and low CoR will mitigate the impact from lower rates. With RoTE settling at 14%-15% for NBG and Eurobank; 13%-14% for Piraeus; and 11%-12% for Alpha (guidance).

This is our BoP Greek equities briefing. We have not made many changes compared to our semi-annual one in July: we downgraded Alpha and Helex; and upgraded Eurobank. Plus, we re-visited GEK, reiterating OI and replacing its soon-to-be-delisted RES subsidiary, Terna Energy.

Greek Banks completed reporting Q3 results. Net income and RoTE came in stronger than expected. We model…

In the last month, last week and since ECB Oct 17th rate cut, Greek banks have underperformed the Athens Index and Euro Stoxx Banks. Alpha and Eurobank have suffered the most. Local noise blames a series of stock placements and bond issuances draining liquidity. We believe Greek Banks weakness has more to do with…