Q3 core earnings in line with NBG’s own compiled consensus, as -1.7% lower fees were offset by -8.1% lower CoR; NII/PPP/core net income moved by -0.8%/-3.8%/-8.4% qoq, on our calculations. Loan growth (9M +E1.8bn) and lower deposit cost supported NII in Q3, with management calling it the trough, assuming no more ECB rate cuts.
Q2 NII was broadly in line with consensus while stronger fees pushed PPP +1.7% to +4.6% above estimates. Lending was stronger qoq (Interest earning Stage loans +E4.2bn in Q2 from +E1.6bn in Q1), prompting banks to revise their FY 2025 loan targets higher and making sure NII sensitivity to 25bps-50bps further ECB rate cuts remains…
Greek Banks reported Q1 results last week. As expected, (L4L) NII and core PPP declined (-9% yoy/-5% qoq) on lower Euribor (-135bps/-45bps). The solid run rate on fees, lower time depos and -potentially- stronger loan volumes resulted in banks confirming FY targets, even if Euribor ends up 25bps lower than budgeted. Greek economic growth and…
Eurobank, Alpha and NBG reported Q4 results last week. And provided new guidance for 2025-2027. High single-digit loan growth, fee expansion, hedging, and low CoR will mitigate the impact from lower rates. With RoTE settling at 14%-15% for NBG and Eurobank; 13%-14% for Piraeus; and 11%-12% for Alpha (guidance).
This is our BoP Greek equities briefing. We have not made many changes compared to our semi-annual one in July: we downgraded Alpha and Helex; and upgraded Eurobank. Plus, we re-visited GEK, reiterating OI and replacing its soon-to-be-delisted RES subsidiary, Terna Energy.