With all IFRS reports published (finally), we present our sector map for Q4/FY 2023. Our views per bank have already been analyzed in stand-alone notes. In short: if you wish to bet on P/TBV moving towards 1.0x TBV, go with NBG. If you prefer to bet on P/TBV convergence, go with Alpha. To avoid being solely backward-looking, we present an exercise showing the single most important parameter in banks’ 2026 RoTE guidance.

Q4 Sector Map confirms NBG as our top pick. Highest NII, NIM, PPPM; RoTE; CET1; S3 covg combined with lowest NPE%, CoR; ECB funding. Additionally, it recorded the biggest increase in S1 loans qoq / decrease in S2+3 loans. The bank benefits from a low time-deposit mix at 18% (vs 24%-34% peers), therefore enjoying a lower deposit beta (10% vs 12%-15% in Q3); We estimate NBG’s RoTE excludes c. E17m (or 100bps RoTE annualized) in opex (one-offs) which does not change the comparison.

’If you cannot explain it simply, then you do not understand it well enough.’’ Testing ourselves, we share our understanding of each Greek investment case we cover within a few lines.
Conclusions: Our base case scenario is materializing, i.e., Mitsotakis administration renewing its mandate and Greece avoiding a recession. Equities have re-rated and are +36% YTD, so now…

What’s new? With Alpha Bank (Jun 7) and Bank of Cyprus (Jun 8) holding their Investor Update events this week, we thought it would be useful to wrap up Q1 2023 results and touch upon the major banking trends in Greece. And what better way to do this than through a RoTE waterfall chart that shows each bank’s RoTE components in margin terms (% assets). Additionally, we summarize the most notable points out of Q1 2023 results.

What’s new? NBG published Q1 2023 results (no IFRS notes yet) showing annualized RoTE at 14.7% (+270bps qoq) driven by a widening loan-deposit spread, caused mainly by the asymmetric rate pass-through between loans and deposits. Management did not raise its full year guidance (core RoTE at 11%) but said that Q1 points to significant upside risk.