Adjusted for MOH’s insurance compensation and Helleniq’s Elefsina shutdown, Q2 refining EBITDA came in stronger qoq, thanks to stronger gasoline and jet cracks. The weak(er) USD and the weak renewables performance took away part of this strength.

Q2 EBITDA at E543m (+16% yoy) reversed the slower run-rate witnessed in Q1 (E453m) towards hitting FY 2025 guidance of E2.0bn. We estimate this was driven by a) higher retail (supply) margin thanks to bigger volumes bought wholesale at lower prices (DAM) and b) higher RES contribution and lower nat gas and CO2 costs benefiting own generation.

Q2 results. The company reiterated 2025 reported FCFE target of E460m (incl. TRM) and its guidance for clean EBITDA(L) growth of +2% p.a. going forward. The TRM disposal is expected to close in Q3, with proceeds to be returned to shareholders. PPC’s fiber rollout is viewed as a manageable challenge.

July trading showed sales growing at +9% yoy with the YTD rate maintained at +8% yoy after yet another month. Greece was up +10% yoy in July (7M +9%), Cyprus +13% (7M +8%), Bulgaria +2% (7M +2%) and Romania +7% (7M +7%). Still no full year guidance. What stands out is…

Q2 NII/PPP/RoTE AT1 (excl trading gains, post AT1) at E182m/E148m/16.5% showed a more resilient run-rate than our FY 2025 forecasts and BoC’s targets. NII dropped -2.2% qoq (-12.1% yoy), as the impact from lower ECB (-54bps) and Euribor (-45bps) rates was offset by structural (>E5bn, 70% of cash, at 2.8% yield) and natural (1/3 of net loans) hedges.