Q2 NII was broadly in line with consensus while stronger fees pushed PPP +1.7% to +4.6% above estimates. Lending was stronger qoq (Interest earning Stage loans +E4.2bn in Q2 from +E1.6bn in Q1), prompting banks to revise their FY 2025 loan targets higher and making sure NII sensitivity to 25bps-50bps further ECB rate cuts remains manageable. Themes in Q2…

On Jul 10, GEK and MOH announced plans to merge their thermal generation assets and retail/supply operations into a single entity, with each company holding a 50% stake (equity consolidated*). MOH will pay GEK E128m in cash, which we assume is to equalize the transaction, as GEK is contributing higher-value assets.

Euronext confirmed it has entered discussions with Hellenic Exchanges (Helex) about a possible offer to acquire up to 100% of the Greek stock exchange. The proposed deal would be structured as an all-share transaction, valuing Helex at E6.9 per share -or E399m, excluding treasury shares- based on a fixed exchange ratio of 1 Euronext share for every 21.029 Helex shares.

Focusing on the big picture usually means we are not able to assess the small one, i.e. short/mid term financials. Indeed, this is the case with the grid operator (51% owned by listed ADMIE Holdings). RAB of E2.6bn in 2024, increases to E3.5bn by 2026 with Ariadne (Athens-Crete) and Cyclades D and to E6.2bn by 2031, with the rest of the Greek islands and Italy (net of subsidies and deprecation). We do not include Cyprus, S. Arabia or Egypt.

OPAP reported solid Q1 results with GGR/ EBITDA/net income at E595m/E207m/E123m or +8%/+8%/+10% yoy. Driven by +5% GGR growth in offline and +19% yoy GGR growth in online. Judging from total online GGR growth at +16% yoy in Q1 (regulator), OPAP enjoyed a higher market share in online. Management reiterated full year targets for low single digit GGR growth and EBITDA margin at 35% (flat yoy).