Q1 2025 EBITDA at E450m (-1.3% yoy) was below expectations on lower hydro (GR), wind factors (GR, ROM) and tariff delays in distribution (ROM). But management reiterated FY target for E2.0bn (+10% yoy), apparently anticipating the following quarters will make up for the lost ground. e have no reason to believe otherwise. Therefore…

Q1 NII/PPP/RoTE AT1 at E186m/E158m/16.8% (RGe) marked a solid start for 2025 compared to BoC’s full year targets. These were maintained despite the 20bps-25bps lower forward rate curve, on the back of stronger volumes and additional hedging.

Greek Banks reported Q1 results last week. As expected, (L4L) NII and core PPP declined (-9% yoy/-5% qoq) on lower Euribor (-135bps/-45bps). The solid run rate on fees, lower time depos and -potentially- stronger loan volumes resulted in banks confirming FY targets, even if Euribor ends up 25bps lower than budgeted.

Greek economic growth and fiscal discipline support lending & fee expansion. Deposit dynamics and strong asset quality support organic earnings/capital generation. While accommodating for higher payouts, with buybacks contributing to EPS growth.

Q1 revenues/clean EBITDA/net grew by +2%/+12%/-17% yoy. Aggregates and RMC volume up with cement sales flat. Strong Greece and East Med were weighed down by flattish US and weak SEE. Bottom line declined on higher taxes and minorities from the US (13.3%). Cautiously optimistic. In line with peers, Titan management shared a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2025 based on adverse weather conditions (US, SEE) normalizing, solid US pricing & infrastructure spending, and signs of stabilization in Egypt (strong exports).

Management confirmed it is experiencing several positive catalysts YTD: Q1 sales are +8% yoy; freight rates are down (and should be heading lower); the EUR/USD rate is +10% stronger; and Chinese products should be getting cheaper for non-US buyers. This explains why it will propose not to pay a dividend out of 2024, favoring buying back shares and/or stocking up inventory as an alternative use of money for shareholders. We expect the second option will be the main use of cash given shares are trading above the max buy-back limit of E27.2, and management has no intention of raising it.