If Q2 was bittersweet, with top-line growth slowing down but with all earnings lines and their respective margins growing significantly, Q3 was bad (trading update, no conf call). Sales -3% yoy (L4L -0.3%), EBITDA -7%, pre-tax -10%, and margins 50-110bps lower vs Q3 last year.

We feel vindicated going through Allwyn’s (owns 52% in OPAP) reverse merge presentation (Oct 13) describing OPAP does not have much earnings growth or that, post 2030, EBITDA and cash flows will drop significantly, even OPAP renews its core license. It is the main reason we have a DO NOT OWN IT (DOI) rating on the stock, with a PT of E15.7.

H1 2025 revenues/EBITDA/net grew +15%/+13%/+16% at E123m/E69m/E47m with the heavyweight container and cruise businesses offsetting weakness in ferry, car and ship repair segments.  Adjusting for the latter, and even though July-September Cosco/PCT traffic is down yoy, we see upside risk to our 2025 estimates.

Judging from the lower margin/flattish earnings performance in H1 and management comments in the conference call that followed, we conclude Jumbo is playing defense. Threats being competition, political turmoil, weak disposable incomes, geopolitical uncertainty. Allies being the weaker USD, lower freight costs, and stronger wholesale trading.

Q2 showed a flattish top-line (+1% yoy) whereas EBITDA (+25% yoy) and EBIT (+25% yoy) grew impressively, pushing margins up +300bps yoy. SAR lowered its FY 2025 sales guidance by 2.5% but reiterated its earnings targets. No change in 2026-2028.