What’s new? Jumbo published full 2022 accounts with sales at E949m/+14% yoy (as guided), EBITDA at E337m/+10% yoy and net income at E249m/+15% yoy. These are all record numbers, including the gross margin at 55.9% (+20bps yoy). Guidance for 2023 was reiterated for sales/gross margin/net income at +15% yoy/54%/E270m-E275m. As was management’s assessment of the consumer problems brewing underneath the sunshine.
Cash flow lagged. Equity cash flow stood at E125m or 4.5% yield on market cap; with EBITDA to Cash flow conversion back to 2019 levels of 37%. Working capital outflow = 27% of EBITDA explains the delta vs FCFE of E283m in 2021. We consider the 2022 indicative of sales growth and higher inventory prices mainly in H1.
Conclusion. We reiterate our OWN IT (OI) with our price target at E30 (from E29). Our valuation is based on 9% discount rate and 1% terminal growth (both unchanged). On our valuation, shares are trading 11.9x EPS (x-cash) and 8.9x EBITDA 2023E compared to current-price multiples of 7.9x EPS and 5.8x EBITDA 2023; while offering a 5.7% dividend yield.

What’s new? FY 2022 EBITDA came in E1.5m/-11% lower compared to our estimate for E14m, on E1.0m less revenue (post trading) and E0.5m higher opex (personnel). Weirdly enough, lower depreciation (E0.9m) and higher income from associates plus tax returns (total E0.6m) made sure pre-tax income came in line with our estimate for E10.5m. Helex announced DPS unchanged yoy at E0.15 or 3.4% yield at current prices.

RG_Hellenic Exchanges_FY 2022 update_Apr 2023

What’s new? EBITDA in Q4 came in +37% better than guidance (and consensus) but -16% below our estimates. We single out a) the huge cash flow improvement in Q4, with net debt landing to E1.5bn from E2.5bn in Q3; b) RES progressing as per the business plan; and c) guidance for higher EBITDA in 2023 at E1.1bn (2022 at E0.95bn), excluding the Enel Romania acquisition (E300m).

What’s new? Sarantis reported weak, albeit but in line with our estimates, Q4/FY 2022 results, missing Estee Lauder’s P&L contribution, and reflecting higher raw material costs, affecting mainly the home care segment. The outlook for 2023-2024 is way better, the balance sheet is strong, and the business strategy is unchanged.
Conclusion. While It is quite tempting to …

The political risk has gone up following the train tragedy at Tempe on Feb 28. Elections moved forward by one month, Mitsotakis poll lead has come down to 3ppt (from 7-9ppt), and so have the chances of forming a one-party government in the second round.
Basic election math. Recent polls show Mitsotakis lead has narrowed down to 2-3ppt, managing 30-33% of the votes. Forming a government in the first round requires 45%* which drops down to 37-38%* in the second round thanks to bonus seats allocated to the first party.
Base case scenario. The above implies a) Greece will not avoid a second round and b) it will take more than one party to form a government. The base case is for the ruling party teaming up with KINAL, currently ranking third in polls at 9%-10%.

ResearchGreece Greek Politics_Election Date May 21