What’s new? Q4/FY results came in line with our estimates and OPAP’s own EBITDA guidance. The positive surprise was the overall payment to shareholders at E1.45/share (we expected E1.35), almost as good as last year (E1.50). Management expects 2023 GGR at E2.06bn-E2.14bn (6%-10% yoy) with EBITDA at E740m-E760m (1%-4% yoy L4L). They also reiterated minimum remuneration policy of E1.0/share.

What’s new? With this note, we are making a case in favor of Greek banks, considering recent banking developments in the US and Europe, namely the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank, the rescue of First Republic Bank, and the acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS, including the wipe out of AT1 holders. We reiterate our OWN IT ratings on NBG, Eurobank and Piraeus Bank.
We should also flag Bank of Cyprus, which can now boast about its huge cash balance of 30% to total assets (earning 3% yield @ ECB’s DFR) and low unrealized losses in its HtM securities portfolio.

What’s new? Eurobank published Q4/FY 2022 results (no IFRS notes) beating our NII and PPP estimates on favorable interest rate pass through (loans, not deposits); but weirdly enough coming in line with our net income estimate and 12.7% annualized RoTE, on much higher taxes.
Management raised its RoTE guidance to 13% in 2023 and 12% in 2025, on NIM expansion (higher interest rates), and with the help of soon-to-be-equity-consolidated Hellenic Bank (29% stake) contributing c.0.5ppt. Management’s base rate assumption for ECB depo rate at 2.5% flat by 2025 seem conservative. At least before the SVB collapse came into the picture. The 2025 RoTE drop is attributed to piling MREL costs and the full effect of higher time-deposit rates.

What’s new? 1.5 months after the release of flash note FY 2022 results showing record profits and a tremendous beat against consensus estimates, Mytilineos published its full IFRS 2022 report. We are halfway through the 444-page document. The most notable points are:
Point #1, CEO E141m pay. On p. 400 (English version), we see admin expenses went >3x higher vs 2021 at E270m, o/w E196m being ‘other employee benefits.’ The note explains that E141m relate to the contract implementation between the company and the CEO, as approved by the AGM in 2018.
• In other words, the CEO was paid E141m for…

What’s new? Following three months of exclusive negotiations, and in line with its 2021 strategy, PPC announced the acquisition of Enel Romania assets, namely 499MW installed wind + 36MW solar (plus 5GW pipeline o/w 314MW short term additions), three DSOs, and two electricity supply companies, for a total enterprise value of E1.9bn (incl. minorities) or an equity value of E1.26bn. PPC buys these assets at an implied 6x run-rate EBITDA, which we consider to be quite favorable. The transaction is expected to close by Q3.
Conclusion. We like the transaction because a) it was completed at a 50% discount to recent RES deals in Greece, namely MOH’s E2.0m/MW or 12x EBITDA acquisition of Ellaktor wind assets; and b) it is evidence PPC is delivering on its business plan targets as laid out in 2021.

RG_PPC_Buys Enel Assets in Romania_Mar2023