What’s new? The most notable points from FY results are a) +10MW additional capacity vs Q3 (wind); b) +130bps load factor yoy; and c) 2023-2029 guidance reiterated. Revenues/EBITDA/net income came in at E298m/E165m/E68m or +9%/+3%/+3% yoy (adjusted for E49m non cash stock option expenses and discontinued trading operations) and +5%/-7% compared to our estimates.
TEN reiterated May 2022 Investor Day targets for 3.3GW installed in 2025 (from 905MW now) and >6.4GW in 2029 with EBITDA >E700m (from E160m-E170m in 2022). These remain ambitious along with the implied capex at E2.4bn by 2025. In 2022 capex stood at E238m from E400m guided/estimated as per the business plan.

What’s new? FY 2022 results came in even worse than what we expected, on lower water consumption and rising electricity costs, pushing EBITDA down by -55% yoy and -40% vs our estimate. Taking out E25m of non-cash income for maintenance (to be booked until 2025), underlying EBITDA collapses to E14m (from E60m adjusted in 2022 and E105m in 2019) while EBIT turns negative by E25m. There is no better summary/description of 2022 results than the DPS announcement for E0.02 compared to E0.28 in 2021.

What’s new? Despite several (small and big) one-offs, Q4 results marked a solid closing (Q4 ref margin: $20/bbl, FY: $19/bbl) to a very strong P&L and cash flow FY 2022. YTD MED margins are strong, comparable to 2022 levels, plus MOH’s naphtha reformer and full year contribution from acquired renewables suggest EBITDA will remain above historical levels. In short, management’s strategy is working.
Which translates to using E1.6bn of adjusted EBITDA in 2022 (o/w E1.4bn refining) and E1.3bn of net income (adjusted for E358m in solidarity taxes) to spend E260m in refining capex and invest E880m in renewables, while paying shareholders E180m/7% in dividends. Net debt +E300m higher yoy (1.0x EBITDA).

What’s new? With this note we are re-vising the investment case of Fourlis. Q4 marked a strong finish in what was overall a bad 2022, hit by supply chain constraints and cost inflation (incl. energy). But it also means we have one more full year of Trade Estates, the hopefully-soon-to-be-IPOed REIT subsidiary of the group. Therefore, a better way of assessing the value between the latter and the core, retail, business of Fourlis.
Conclusion. At E207m the current market cap of Fourlis equals the E194m NAV of its owned assets (through Trade Estates REIT = 92% stake x E211m total NAV), with the retail business (IKEA + Intersport) valued at E12.9m. The latter matches the 2022 reported net earnings of the retail business (including E8.5m of real estate revaluation gains).
Not exactly a surprise given the weak clean/adjusted performance of the latter in 2022, in part reflecting the transfer of value towards Trade Estates.

Now that all Greek banks have -finally- published their full IFRS notes (Eurobank being the last), we analyze the most interesting points out of 2022 performance: Balance sheet structure, NII breakdown, RoTE differences, Securities HtM & unrealized losses, Stage 1-3 movements & coverage, and P&L reporting peculiarities. Some things we find annoying. You can see these highlighted in blue.
In the spreadsheet attached, you can see our Sector Map (with Q4/FY 2022 P&L, Asset Quality, Capital, and Balance sheet items, side-by-side for all 4 systemic banks); Balance sheet structure 2012-2022; Forecast earnings 2023-2025; Multiples; MREL; NII B/D; Stage 1-3; IRBB.