Greek Banks: RoTE Waterfall

June 6th, 2023

What’s new? With Alpha Bank (Jun 7) and Bank of Cyprus (Jun 8) holding their Investor Update events this week, we thought it would be useful to wrap up Q1 2023 results and touch upon the major banking trends in Greece. And what better way to do this than through a RoTE waterfall chart that shows each bank’s RoTE components in margin terms (% assets). Additionally, we summarize the most notable points out of Q1 2023 results.

PPC Business Plan Steadily On Track

June 2nd, 2023

What’s new? Q1 2023 showed EBITDA growing +67% yoy at E285m, and -8% down qoq; 2/3 came from generation & supply and the rest mainly from distribution. Management raised FY organic EBITDA guidance to E1.2bn (from E1.1bn). PPC is emerging strong from the energy crisis, delivering on its RES business plan, including in SEE (Romania), and on track to reinstating dividend payments out of 2023 earnings.

Greek Refineries: Is The Party Over?

June 1st, 2023

What’s new? Q1 2023 results showed refining margins remain at super high levels of $21-$22/bbl keeping quarterly clean EBITDA at E400m-E450m. Low/reversed working capital resulted to solid cash flow conversion (E230m FCFE MOH, E540m ELPE) with both companies reporting lower net debt qoq (

OPAP: Strong Q1 But We Downgrade to DOI

May 26th, 2023

What’s new? Q1 GGR/EBITDA/Net income came in stronger than what we expected, with offline (core) GGR rising above pre-pandemic 2019 levels, and closer to the strong Q4 of last year. 1/3 of the pre-tax delta is attributed to financial cost savings, thanks to the cash flow driven/debt deleveraging that has taken place since 2020, with OPAP turning net cash this quarter.

NBG: Q1 Points To Significant Upside RoTE Risk

May 24th, 2023

What’s new? NBG published Q1 2023 results (no IFRS notes yet) showing annualized RoTE at 14.7% (+270bps qoq) driven by a widening loan-deposit spread, caused mainly by the asymmetric rate pass-through between loans and deposits. Management did not raise its full year guidance (core RoTE at 11%) but said that Q1 points to significant upside risk.