What’s new? It is no secret Greece’s economic and political outlook has improved tremendously post the pandemic and energy crises. Banks have cleaned up their balance sheets; the govt budget produced a primary surplus; debt/GDP went down -23ppt; GDP is expected to grow double the Euro area rate; and voters just re-elected a pro-growth/reforms administration.
Update. We outline the most recent macro trends, namely GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, real estate, public debt, fiscal budget in this research note. We include a few bullets on Greek equities at the end…

’If you cannot explain it simply, then you do not understand it well enough.’’ Testing ourselves, we share our understanding of each Greek investment case we cover within a few lines.
Conclusions: Our base case scenario is materializing, i.e., Mitsotakis administration renewing its mandate and Greece avoiding a recession. Equities have re-rated and are +36% YTD, so now…

What’s new? Jumbo’s monthly trading update showed May sales growth picking up compared to April, and YTD sales +22% yoy. This is higher than FY guidance for sales growth of +15% yoy. Management announced an additional E0.322 DPS out of 2022 earnings, bringing total DPS paid in 2023 at E1.477 (5.9% yield @ current price). As mentioned in the press release, neither the unstable weather nor the pre-election period were strong enough headwinds to prevent sales from growing on a double-digit rate in May.

What’s new? BoC raised its RoTE target to >17% in 2023 (from >13%) and to >13% in 2025, driven by higher ECB interest rates; their favorable pass through on loans compared to deposits; mid-single digit lending growth; more income from bonds and a clean balance sheet keeping mid-term CoR at 40-50bps. The 30%-50% targeted payout translates to 8%-9% dividend yield while the 15% targeted CET1 implies excess capital equal to 40% of market cap by 2025.

What’s new? Alpha Bank held its Investor Day yesterday, raising/confirming its RoTE 2023 target at c.10% (from >9%) and introducing 2025 RoTE target at >12%. EPS is projected to grow >20% p.a. in 2023-2025, with net income at an implied E590m in 2023 and E705m in 2025 (net of AT1 costs). The buffer. We find the most important buffer assumption in Alpha’s 2023-2025 business plan to be pushing depositors away from term deposits and into own asset management products (money market, mutual funds, private banking). Thus, keeping deposit costs low while generating fees. The big news, however, was management’s clear communication over potentially returning excess capital to shareholders, on top of resuming ordinary dividends (out of 2023 earnings @ 30bps RWA)…