If there is one bank that should have already raised 2024 guidance when releasing Q1 results, it is BoC. RoTE in Q1 stood at 29% (on 15% CET1), on avg Euribor at 3.9%, time deposit beta at 22% and time depo mix at 33%. These compare with FY 2024 assumptions of 3.15%/40%/45% and RoTE guidance of >17% (RGe at 18%). BoC said will review its guidance with Q2 results.
Conclusion. We reiterate our OWN IT (OI) rating and PT of E5.7 (from E5.5). We raise our FY 2024 NII/PPP/pre-tax income/net income estimates by +3%/+5%/+9%/+5%; with our 15% CET1 based RoTE at 20% from 18%. Net income revision is held back by the 15% vs 12.5% tax rate (EU min).

As if you have not received enough banking quarterly updates by now, we are sharing our own Sector Map, in which we have compiled the main Q1 numbers as reported by banks (adjusted by ourselves), side-by-side to make it super easy to compare and spot the differences. You will need to click on the excel file attached.
We outline the ones we think are the most notable in the bullets below. It would be great to compare notes, so please feel free to send over any points or questions you may have!

OTE reported Q1 24 results with adj EBITDA(L) +1.2% yoy (Greece +1.5% yoy) and adj net income +4.9% yoy helped by lower depreciation and financials. Main points: a) margin dilution thanks to strong but lower margin ICT and wholesale revenues; b) Romania remains weak; c) FY cash flow reiterated at E470m; d) this was the last conference call of the current CEO.
Conclusion. We reiterate our DO NOT OWN IT (DOI) rating with our PT at E14.5 (from E14.5). OTE’s valuation reflects E540m-E590m FCFE p.a. discounted back at 9%-10% WACC. The stock keeps trading at a 20% discount to EUR peers in EV/EBITDA terms and at a 5% discount in FCF yield terms for 2024-2025, both narrowing from 25% and 10% a quarter ago.

We are resuming coverage on Titan, admittedly with a big delay following the company’s Investor Day last September, and given the stock is up +100% in the last 12 months. Following the release of Q1 24 results, management expects 2024 will be > 2023 and announced their intention to IPO the US business (55% of EBITDA; 15%-25% minority stake) by early 2025.
Conclusion: a) Fetching US cement peer valuation of 8x-10x EBITDA for US ops (vs 5.2x currently for the entire group) can re-rate shares further, assuming US EBITDA can grow by 8%-10% p.a. in 2024-2026; b) Sep 2023 Investor Day guidance had a short life, with 2023 results far exceeding it.

NBG reported Q1 24 RoTE @ 18%, which implies it has great chances of revising its FY 2024 guidance for RoTE @ 15%. The drivers being lower deposit costs (time depo mix), higher base rates and lower CoR.
Management admitted their 2024 targets look conservative. We cannot judge the same about the dividend to be paid out 2023 (or 2024) earnings. Management was reluctant to provide a clear update, given it targets a higher payout than its peers.