Q4 results were in line, with adj EBITDAL +1.0% yoy (Greece +1.8% yoy). FY cash flow came in slightly better (E440m from E435m guided). Guidance for 2025 was rather uninspiring:  Greek adj EBITDA +2.0% yoy, reported FCFE at E460m, distribution at E451m (E298m/E153m cash/buyback). TRM is burning E70m of cash p.a.

This is our BoP Greek equities briefing. We have not made many changes compared to our semi-annual one in July: we downgraded Alpha and Helex; and upgraded Eurobank. Plus, we re-visited GEK, reiterating OI and replacing its soon-to-be-delisted RES subsidiary, Terna Energy.

Q3 Greek clean EBITDAL grew by +1.5% yoy, in line with the rate witnessed in the previous quarters. Romania remains operationally bad. Management sounded upbeat for FTTH thanks to the E80m/2YR subsidy scheme just launched, the 5% tax duty abolishment for speeds >100MBPS and the pay TV take up driven by sharing sports content with rival platform Nova (+E3 ARPU).

There was nothing particularly noteworthy in Q2 numbers. The same trends from Q1 continued, but with a significantly weaker Romania. As a result, adjusted EBITDAL did not grow yoy, despite a 1.5% increase in Greece. Lower depreciation and financial costs helped adjusted net income to grow by +5.6% yoy. The new CEO made a positive impression when describing the initiatives around FTTH and pay TV. Cash flow guidance for the year was maintained at E470m.

OTE reported Q1 24 results with adj EBITDA(L) +1.2% yoy (Greece +1.5% yoy) and adj net income +4.9% yoy helped by lower depreciation and financials. Main points: a) margin dilution thanks to strong but lower margin ICT and wholesale revenues; b) Romania remains weak; c) FY cash flow reiterated at E470m; d) this was the last conference call of the current CEO.
Conclusion. We reiterate our DO NOT OWN IT (DOI) rating with our PT at E14.5 (from E14.5). OTE’s valuation reflects E540m-E590m FCFE p.a. discounted back at 9%-10% WACC. The stock keeps trading at a 20% discount to EUR peers in EV/EBITDA terms and at a 5% discount in FCF yield terms for 2024-2025, both narrowing from 25% and 10% a quarter ago.