OTE: Strong Q4; Higher 2026 EBITDA Guidance but FCFE In-Line; Change in Distribution Policy a Negative; Remains DOI; One of the Best Defensive Greek Plays

February 27th, 2026

Q4 revenues/adj EBITDA(L)/adj net income came in +8.7%/+2.3%/+1.8% yoy with reported FCF at E168m (adj at E172m and +9% vs RGe). Adj EBITDA(L) in line with our estimate (E351m vs E350m) while revenues +6% higher on stronger fixed revenues.

OTE: Selling TRM, Increasing FTTH subs, Monetizing tower assets are the catalysts

February 28th, 2025

Q4 results were in line, with adj EBITDAL +1.0% yoy (Greece +1.8% yoy). FY cash flow came in slightly better (E440m from E435m guided). Guidance for 2025 was rather uninspiring:  Greek adj EBITDA +2.0% yoy, reported FCFE at E460m, distribution at E451m (E298m/E153m cash/buyback). TRM is burning E70m of cash p.a.

Greek Equities Briefing (Annual)

January 13th, 2025

This is our BoP Greek equities briefing. We have not made many changes compared to our semi-annual one in July: we downgraded Alpha and Helex; and upgraded Eurobank. Plus, we re-visited GEK, reiterating OI and replacing its soon-to-be-delisted RES subsidiary, Terna Energy.

OTE: Waiting For FTTH and/or Towers

November 15th, 2024

Q3 Greek clean EBITDAL grew by +1.5% yoy, in line with the rate witnessed in the previous quarters. Romania remains operationally bad. Management sounded upbeat for FTTH thanks to the E80m/2YR subsidy scheme just launched, the 5% tax duty abolishment for speeds >100MBPS and the pay TV take up driven by sharing sports content with rival platform Nova (+E3 ARPU).

OTE: FTTH & Towers

August 12th, 2024

There was nothing particularly noteworthy in Q2 numbers. The same trends from Q1 continued, but with a significantly weaker Romania. As a result, adjusted EBITDAL did not grow yoy, despite a 1.5% increase in Greece. Lower depreciation and financial costs helped adjusted net income to grow by +5.6% yoy. The new CEO made a positive impression when describing the initiatives around FTTH and pay TV. Cash flow guidance for the year was maintained at E470m.