2023 was the second consecutive year with ref margin >$18/bbl, EUR/USD below 1.10 and vol @ 13.4m tn or higher. MOH generated EBITDA of E1.48bn o/w E1.18bn from refining. Still, Q4 EBITDA was below our estimate by -15%/E63m on -14% lower vol and $2/bbl lower margin (gasoline crack).
But FY cash flow of E496m was in line with our estimates, on lower working capital and taxes. This is a 16.6% yield against market cap. MOH announced a record E1.8 DPS (RGe E1.7) on a 25% payout, implying a 6.6% yield on current market cap (incl. E0.40 interim).

PPA reported FY 2023 results below our estimates on higher payroll (E7.5m diff) and other expenses (E10m diff) causing an EBITDA miss of -5% (E6m). The higher effective tax rate (31% vs 22%) made things worse (E7m diff), with net income -17% (E13.5m diff). DPS of E1.34 is consistent with a 50% payout, included in our estimates, but applied on lower earnings means it too came in worse than expected (E1.58).

With all IFRS reports published (finally), we present our sector map for Q4/FY 2023. Our views per bank have already been analyzed in stand-alone notes. In short: if you wish to bet on P/TBV moving towards 1.0x TBV, go with NBG. If you prefer to bet on P/TBV convergence, go with Alpha. To avoid being solely backward-looking, we present an exercise showing the single most important parameter in banks’ 2026 RoTE guidance.

Sarantis published Q4 results (Mar 14) +30% above our estimates and >60% their guidance in EBIT terms; but a heavier ‘bomb’ came from 2024-2028 targets about doubling EBITDA to E120m and generating >E375m of aggregate pre-dividend cash flow, (55% of mkt cap on the day). This is without new acquisitions except for the integration of Stella Pack in 2024 (+20% of EBITDA 2023).

What’s new? Q4 refining margin, clean EBITDA and net income came in lower than what we expected. But cash flow did better thanks to lower taxes and capex. Even so, FY 2023 was the second consecutive above-mid-cycle-refining year for Helleniq. Management announced an E0.60/7.3% residual DPS/yield (we expected E0.56) on top of the E0.30 already paid.
Conclusion. To the crucial question: ‘where to from here?’ we provide the same answer: We reiterate our DO NOT OWN IT (DOI) rating with our PT at E7.6 (unchanged). We find management’s target for +40% increase in E0.88bn-E1.0bn mid-cycle EBITDA quite demanding, unless refining margins are to stay >$15/bbl.