The US did not add to profits, Egypt took away some with good chances to take out more. And the reason behind our 7% EBITDA cuts on average over 2014-16. On the other hand outlook is still good enough to warrant and OWN IT rating. This year incremental EBITDA at E34m with ….

Earnings at an inflexion point on decent FCF but not good enough for a positive thesis, despite record high FCF in the previous years due to past profits from construction. In 2016 we see net income at E37m and FCF at E61m – we think is decent but not fireworks. Attiki Odos traffic to grow earnings albeit not to the extent the market expects. If construction EBIT margin beats us by 100bps our 2015 EPS ups by 40%. IPO of wind parks is a positive development to crystalise value. For now at our target price there is not enough upside to warrant an OWN IT rating…contact@researchgreece.com

Q1 showed mixed trends with strong EBITDA coming out of the Greek fixed business (opex cuts) and weak EBITDA out of mobile operations (competition/MTR). We only fine-tune our estimates at this stage as the fixed line strength in Greece was anticipated while the mobile weakness was offset by better fixed ops in Romania. Our FY 2014 EBITDA and net income estimates remain unchanged at E1.426bn and E327m. We see downside risk in our Romanian mobile EBITDA due to the April MTR cuts. Our price target is also unchanged at E13.7 and we reiterate our DOI rating. Shares are trading at a 25% discount to European peers (EV/EBITDA 15E) –roughly the upside implied by our PT; not attractive enough given the flattish EBITDA outlook. contact@researchgreece.com

NBG will raise E2.5bn through a book building process. Based on our adjusted price target for potential issue prices we find the process attractive for an issue price below E2.25 per share (20% discount to May 2 closing price). See our report attached for acquisition price and multiples; bad loan absorption capacity post capital; pro-forma B3 fully loaded CT1 ratios; HFSF stake dilution…to access this report contact@researchgreece.com

More stores, strong tourism, social dividend, a strong Euro… more profits, more cash flow = Upgrade to OWN IT. 3Q14 sales +9% yoy; Cyprus adding most of the growth? Greek sales in positive territory; could imply flattish LfL in 3Q; a sequential deterioration. Albeit hopefully improving on better tourism, more … to access this report … contact@researchgreece.com