HFSF approved a E0.30 per share bid by a group of investors to cover 46.5% of the E2.86bn SCI. Final price will be set by the book building process (last week of April). E0.30 is a bargain for investors, implying an acquisition pro-forma P/TE 2013 of 0.77x (0.73x P/TE 2016E). The size of the SCI (1x TBV 2013) is an argument in favor of the HFSF accepting the offer. On the flip side, saying yes to E0.30 is not exactly a vote of confidence in the prospects of the Greek banking sector (or Greece in general?). Or is there something wrong with Eurobank in particular? Our research on the latter suggests otherwise and this is why we have an OI rating with an adjusted PT of E0.46 (assuming new shares at E0.30). For a price range of E0.30 to E0.40/sh shares trade on 0.73x – 0.97x P/TE 2016; 5.8x – 7.8x P/E 2016E – on our estimates…to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com

1/ Eurobank: OWN IT based on 0.9x P/TE and 7.4x P/E 2016E pro-forma for E3bn capital increase; 2/ Earnings: bridging 2013 to 2016; 3/ Price Target sensitivities based on different RoTE/CoE; 4/ Asset quality update – 2013; 5/ Warrants: fair value estimates; biggest catalyst: asset quality; on a like-for-like basis we favor Eurobank given the valuation gap with peers; Need normalized RoTE >15% for Alpha and Piraeus and >20% for National for risk/reward to pay off, in our view…to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com

4Q13 was one of the same with 3Q13 – strong on profits; not so good on cash flow yet. Results distorted by inventory and receivables write-downs again. Folli missed on FCF in 2013; we modeled negative E7m – delivered negative E17m. Hats off to management; HDF deal must have added …to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com

Stihima sales +17% yoy in Q4 at E398m (we expected E369m) with payout at 70.5%; KINO sales flat at E567m (we expected E531m) with payout at c.69%. Good performance from both games with Stihima up for a second consecutive quarter (grew +8% yoy in Q3) pushing total sales +4% yoy, beating our estimate by 4% or E30m. Clean opex (adjusted for one-off impairments and provisions) at E37m compares favorably with our E35m estimate. Clean EBITDA at E78m vs. our estimate for E73m (+7% beat). Management to propose a DPS of E0.25 (we expected E0.15) – payout ratio at 57% … to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com

2013 was the trough: decade-low margins, inventory losses and heavy maintenance. MOH has responded with higher volumes and stayed profitable. Mid-cycle refining margin at $8/bbl, EBITDA at E267m, EPS at E1.15. We forecast: refining margin at $5.0-$5.5/bbl, EBITDA at E275m and EPS at E0.80. We believe premium margin companies deserve premium multiples. Shares at 6.5x EBITDA 2015E; Pair trade with Hellenic Petroleum since November has yielded +35% and still valid. What are the catalysts for Motor Oil? See our report… to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com