1Q14 earnings at E2m and on track to managing E18m this year. FCF was negative as expected on positive working capital in construction. Construction EBIT margin at 2% albeit should up in the remainder of the year. PBT in concessions down by E5m yoy …
Ellaktor – Q1 2014 – Soft start to the year as expected
June 6th, 2014Jumbo – Conviction OWN IT
June 5th, 20143Q14 EBITDA +14% if we normalise for last year’s hit in Cyprus related deposits. 3Q14 sales +9%; Cyprus better than expected and responsible for 44% of the delta. Greek sales +2%; implies flattish to negative LfL and the reason behind our new Greek LfL of …
Folli Follie – Capital return ahead – fairly valued
June 4th, 20141Q14 was one of the same – strong on profits; not so good on cash flow yet. We conclude to working capital increase of E45m in 1Q14 or E125m in 2014. Capital return ahead – we estimate E0.5 per share or 1.7% yield. Convertible bond of E250m in the cards – at the current price dilution is at c11%. Next catalyst is FCF generation. We model E37m and E35m in 2014E and 2015E…
Coca Cola Hellenic – The end of earnings downgrades?
May 25th, 2014Down goes our EBIT by 7% over 2014-16, hopefully for the last time, mainly due to FX headwinds and on weaker than expected Italy, Ukraine and Poland. Operating leverage; 1% beat on 2015 & 2016 sales could up our target price by E2.5. This could be derived by a better Greece/Nigeria/Italy/Romania and why not Russia. On the other hand we lack conviction to discounting this and maintain our DOI rating.
EYDAP (Athens Water) – Under Utilized – initiating coverage – Not Rated – May 21
May 21st, 2014Status quo or privatization? We see good value in scenario B according to which the state separates infrastructure assets, introduces RAB model and awards (privatizes) the concession business; valuation ranges from E10 per share to E15 per share; latter reflects network expansion and streamlining of costs – in line with a return on RAB of 10%-11%; we see a win-win case with the state (61.33% stake) pocketing E123m from a capital return prior to the sale and E250m from selling 34% in the concession…a total E373m; private investors pay E250m to hit a project IRR of 11%; rest of Attica sees network upgrades as EYDAP takes over from municipalities; will the Supreme Court give the green light for the privatization? Will the political landscape favor it? We cannot rate the shares at this stage (Not Rated); we address most important issues on EYDAP on pp. 21-27 and present our valuation exercises on pp. 4-17