This note is about investing, not trading or event-driven ideas. We believe our OI rated stocks will outperform the market on a risk-adjusted basis in the next 12-18 months. We recommend you own OPAP, Jumbo, PPC, Alpha Bank and ADMIE. We downgrade OTE given it is trading at our target price. We assume the pandemic will be less of a risk; we consider the end of free money and elevated costs and reiterate cash flow conversion as our #1 criterion.

With this note we update our views on Greek equities…

Revisited to conclude …to access this report contact@researchgreece.com

2Q14 was one of the same – strong on profits; weak on cash flow. We model  working capital increase of E153m in 2014; our new sales delta is at E72m. Capital return of E50m could drive net cash to net debt by year end. If the Dufry stake is worth E2.7 per share the market seems to discount FCF of E164m in perpetuity at the current price. We consider this aggressive…

1Q14 was one of the same – strong on profits; not so good on cash flow yet. We conclude to working capital increase of E45m in 1Q14 or E125m in 2014. Capital return ahead – we estimate E0.5 per share or 1.7% yield. Convertible bond of E250m in the cards – at the current price dilution is at c11%. Next catalyst is FCF generation. We model E37m and E35m in 2014E and 2015E…