We raise our 2015 EBITDA estimate by 33% to E528m (-14% in 2016E) as refining margins remain strong YTD; shares trade 5.5x EBITDA 2015E or 17% lower than peers (but 35% higher than Motor Oil); problem is there is no visibility beyond this year; it has been low oil prices supporting margins, not higher demand for oil products. We believe a 5.0x EBITDA exit multiple on refining is more appropriate (in MOH’s case as well) given sovereign risks. We reiterate DOI although we expect Q1 to be strong; MOH would be a better/cheaper choice for those comfortable with the low visibility surrounding the sector.

We lower our EPS estimates by 17%-24% on 12%-18% weaker ADV for 2015E-2017E; it will take more than YTD ADV of E107m for shares to re-rate. Actually, it will take an agreement on the sovereign front – one that will keep Greece afloat and urge investors to lift up banking stocks which have underperformed the market on a 12-month basis. Because it will be trading rather than structural reasons pushing up velocity rates and market values of equities we reiterate DOI on the shares. Readers can check sensitivities on different WACC/ADV pairs inside the note attached.

Despite the US and Egyptian businesses driving operating profits up by cE40m this year and upping group EBITDA margins by 210bps; albeit from a low of 15.7%. Our target price is at E24.3 or at 9.5x 2016 EBITDA. Catalysts 1) pickup in Greek private …to access this report contact@researchgreece.com

We fine tune our model; our target price stays at E9. This year we model E71m of new investments; next year E81m. Hopefully the … to access this report contact@researchgreece.com

Management reiterated FY 2015 guidance and its strategy with both to be updated during the summer; It seems Q2 will shape the company’s future in many fronts (acquisitions, local economy); so far Q2 sales run rate is equally strong as the one in Q1 on the back of acquisitions made in 2014 and higher advertising. We believe there is some work to be done on EBIT x- EL. No price effect from a possible VAT re-balancing (only volume elasticity). At 13.5x EPS 2015E and 8.6x EBITDA 2015E it remains DOI…contact@researchgreece.com