Greece: A Bit Too Late…or Better Late Than Never?

July 6th, 2015

Greeks voted NO to creditors’ proposals. Now what? We believe a realistic scenario requires a debt relief of c.E100bn (1/3 of public debt) as per our updated DSA exercise. A new program needs to be realistic or it will not work. Considering the concessions that creditors will have to make (financing, debt restructuring) such a deal is not very likely to happen. Late conciliatory actions by the Greek side (cabinet re-shuffling, coordinating with opposition parties) could prove to be just that – too late…to access this report contact@researchgreece.com

Greek Banks: Withdrawing Ratings & Target Prices

June 30th, 2015

With ELA maintained at Friday’s level the Greek government had to impose capital controls and keep banks closed until after the referendum takes place. The Greek economy has entered unchartered territory but we are certain economic activity will freeze. In this context we are withdrawing our ratings (previous DOI) and target prices on Greek banks. At this stage, the number one priority for the sector….to access this report contact@researchgreece.com

OPAP: Tax Overhang

June 11th, 2015

In this RG F4T we focus on OPAP: despite having one of the most interesting/promising investments cases in our Greek Universe it has underperformed the market on a 3M and 6M basis (by 0% and 7%). Shares trade 12x EPS 2015E and 9x EPS 2016E vs. RGUniverse (x-banks, OPAP) 16x EPS in both 2015E and 2016E. Why? We conclude there are two reasons….to access this report contact@researchgreece.com

OTE: New VES Announced

June 2nd, 2015

We estimate OTE’s new E85m/700 NoE VES (third in the last four years) could save up to E32m of EBITDA in net terms (+2.4%) while boosting EBITDA margin by +85bps. Valuation wise it could boost our PT by c. 3% closer to E11 per share. We reiterate our OI rating. See our VES sensitivity matrix and assumptions on the note attached…to access this report contact@researchgreece.com

Frigoglass – Disposing Glass at 10x EBITDA – positive development

May 22nd, 2015

Frigoglass announced the disposal of its glass business at 10x EBITDA. Will pocket E200m at the current $ to E rate. We exclude Glass from our DCF and conclude to a new target price at … to access this report contact@researchgreece.com