We reiterate our rating on the company’s dividend capacity. Valuation can justify PT @ E16 on discount rate as low as 5% given OPAP is running a concession business. But we stick to our 6.5% WACC (risk free 1% + premium of 5%-5.5%) yielding a PT of E13.6. The implied +15% upside is not great, but the risk-reward profile and the post Covid dividend yield is/are. The off-line business was closed for 4-5 months during 2020 due to Covid and remains so YTD; still OPAP will be paying E0.45 DPS / E154m, a 4% yield. This is small change compared to the estimated dividend capacity post Covid at >E600m p.a. / 15% yield; based on management’s declared dividend policy to distribute the bulk of the cash flow excluding investments.

Considering that circa 9% RoTE guidance: a) is based on pre-tax or core operating income and b) circa usually means ‘lower than’… we reiterate our DOI rating because the risk-reward profile of NBG at current 0.50x TBV 2021E is not cheap/attractive enough. Clarity provided on the E6bn Frontier securitization, NPE reduction plan, loan moratoria update and clean operating income evolution – All confirmed that NBG, together with Eurobank, stand out in terms of asset quality and hitting RoTE 9%+ already in 2022. We believe the above are…

The updated NPE targets announced by Alpha Bank for 2021-2022 are not as bullish as Eurobank or Piraeus, but they are definitely (more) realistic. Alpha will lower its Greek NPEs ratio <18% in 2021 and <10% in 2022 following E2.8bn securitizations & sales this year and another E2.8bn reduction plan the year after. Adding foreign NPE sales of E400m in 2021 will push the group NPE ratio @ 13%-14% in 2022 on our estimates, from 28% in 2020 (pro forma for Galaxy). Most of the associated cost or E320m was booked upfront in Q4 2020 – taking advantage of the huge E690m trading gains from GGBs in the year. Conclusion...

We set a new target price; we capitalize FCF of E190m at 9%, cancel the 4.1m shares and add the E0.4 return in capital. We do not include…

We set a new target price with the electricity distributor comprising 50% of the fair value. Hopefully, it will be partially sold this year at an EV of at least equal its RAB of E3bn. Assuming debt of E1.5bn is transferred to the distributor, it would equate the fair value, for the PPC shareholder at…