Our conviction on AMDIE Holdings has increased following the release of (equity consolidated) IPTO’s FY 2020 results: a) all interconnection projects are on track; b) capex spending came in line with demanding E500m/year target; c) HEDNO’s RoRAB (WACC) > 6.5% for 2021-2024 is a positive readthrough for IPTO’s own 2021-2024 RAB to be decided by year end; d) management estimates 70% out of its E5bn interconnection investment program should be eligible for PMI premium RoRAB (+1.0%-2.5%). All the above, combined with the interconnection revenue pot and the vaccination rollout (however slow), confirm the unparallel risk-reward profile of the investment case: RAB expansion @ attractive returns offered @ a valuation discount compared to peers.

This note/spreadsheet attached presents our 2022 estimates. We believe Jumbo will…

With this note we attempt to model Aegean during the Covid crisis. Our conclusions may be way-off…

Jumbo released 2020 Covid defying results. Sales down E150m yoy at E694m and net income down by E40m at E140m. EBIT margin down 210bps at 24.8%. FCF before dividends at E163m. Net cash at E360m up by E30m, with E122m in dividend. Romania returned a PBT margin of 31% at par with last year. On 14 stores profits grew 15% yoy to account for 1/3 of group profits. Management puts forward a DPS of E0.47 at the assembly in June.

We welcome the agreement with the state over the cost of crude water -both retroactively (2013-2020) and going forward (2020-2040)- in light of the forthcoming exclusive license renewal for an additional 20YRS. Next steps should be introducing a RAB model and dealing with the huge and unfunded healthcare & pension deficit on balance sheet. But we are not holding our breath. The same goes for…