This is our BoP Greek equities briefing. We have not made many changes compared to our semi-annual one in July: we downgraded Alpha and Helex; and upgraded Eurobank. Plus, we re-visited GEK, reiterating OI and replacing its soon-to-be-delisted RES subsidiary, Terna Energy.

The grid operator (51% owned by listed ADMIE Holdings) reported another strong set of results with Q3  revenues/EBITDA/net income at E131m/E95m/E46m up by +28%/+26%/+38% yoy. Driven by electricity demand (+5% yoy), higher TUoS charges (+10%) and interconnection (+61% yoy).

Major projects capex (Cyclades D, Crete) remains on track. While on the Cyprus interconnection there has been more news flow (and confusion) than capex since Q2

We have updated our valuation as GEK completed the sale of its renewable subsidiary, Terna Energy, pocketing E866m (37% stake); which will finance new -lucrative- concession projects undertaken since our previous assessment two years ago…

The only good thing about MOH’s performance in 2024 is that soon it will be 2025…

Based on YTD trading data (Jan-Nov), we do not expect trading velocity will rise >35% in the coming years anymore. Unless market cap/GDP overshoots >40%, we fail to see how earnings will grow materially post 2024…