Following Q4/FY results, which beat our EBITDA estimates by +23/+5% driven by stronger contribution from construction, we raise our 2026-2028 EBITDA estimates by 4%-6% We increase our PT to E41 (from E31), but downgrade our rating to DO NOT OWN IT (DOI), as we struggle to see sufficient upside from current levels.
We have updated our model and valuation. Since our previous assessment, GEK has commenced operations of Attiki Odos, advanced construction works at Kasteli Airport, secured the North Crete motorway concession, entered into an energy partnership with Motor Oil, and continued progress on the Athens IRC project. The major pending development remains the Egnatia motorway concession….
On Jul 10, GEK and MOH announced plans to merge their thermal generation assets and retail/supply operations into a single entity, with each company holding a 50% stake (equity consolidated*). MOH will pay GEK E128m in cash, which we assume is to equalize the transaction, as GEK is contributing higher-value assets.