AIA reported +11% growth in clean FY 2024 net income; confirmed a 100% payout ratio (E236m/9% yield); and announced (up to E240m) capital increase by 2028 to expedite /co-finance its terminal expansion program while lifting its regulatory capital.

Q4 results were in line, with adj EBITDAL +1.0% yoy (Greece +1.8% yoy). FY cash flow came in slightly better (E440m from E435m guided). Guidance for 2025 was rather uninspiring:  Greek adj EBITDA +2.0% yoy, reported FCFE at E460m, distribution at E451m (E298m/E153m cash/buyback). TRM is burning E70m of cash p.a.

Q4 earnings were +10% better than our estimate on stronger NII and fees offsetting higher REMU impairments. Q4 RoTE came in at 17% with FY at 20% (avg TBV, post AT1). Management announced a 50% payout or E241m/10% yield will be paid to shareholders out of 2024 earnings, o/w E30m via share buy-backs. The payout is set for 50%-70% for next year with reported RoTE at mid-teens on 2.3% avg Euribor rate.

We initiate coverage on Attica Bank. The 5th largest Greek bank by market share has completed a Herculean task in less than 6 months: merging with same-size Pancreta bank, cleaning up NPEs and recapitalizing its balance sheet.

January trading showed +11% yoy sales growth, a (double-digit) rate not seen since May 2024, with Greece +15% yoy, CY +3%, BUL +2% and ROM +5% yoy. Jumbo said a good part of this growth came from sales to franchisees, which operated 3 more stores vs Jan last year (o/w one in Israel). These are in 7 countries north of Greece*. We are left guessing their exact impact.