ECB/EBA AQR and stress tests; DTA conversion into DTC can be a real game-changer adding E10bn/+42%/+430bps to CET1 capital in Q2 FL B3 terms. Short term we expect equities to trade lower on volatility caused by politics, the risk of early elections and negotiations with the Troika over public debt. Long term we expect asset quality and write-offs to be the no.1 catalyst; our note attached includes our estimates over the DTC impact and our own AQR and stress test exercise; we downgrade Eurobank to DOI; estimates and price targets unchanged.

Eurobank Properties is one the largest investment property funds in Greece. We assume another E300m of new investments at 8.7% with the running yield at 8.3%; recent transactions were struck higher at 9.6% for office and 11% for commercial space. If our estimates turn out correct Eurobank Properties will up rental income to E65m next year or to E73m by 2016 which could drive 2015 DPS at E0.52.

Two Syrian projects were responsible for 75% of net income in 2Q. FCF above all expectations; topped E170m in 1H14. On the other hand we believe payables will normalise by year end. For FCF to finish at E90m this year; still very impressive in our view. If this is the case the dividend should at least double for the yield to reach 5.5%. We highlight five key customers account for 90% of 1H sales. Coupled with backlog to sales of 2.2x we value the shares on 4.3x 2015 EBITDA. Our DCF, on 14.7% WACC, 2% perpetuity growth, yields the same fair value of E12.7.

Construction manages adjusted net income of E6m in 2Q; on track to E1bn sales this year. Attiki Odos traffic -4% in 1H14: now model -2%; cumulative -40% since 2010. With Moreas  traffic not picking up yet; we still expect related losses and the reason behind concession adjusted loss of E6m in the quarter; one off gain of E10m in 2Q…

Disappointing 2Q which leads to downgrades again. Shares are off 38% ytd but we still wouldn’t OWN IT with Russia and Ukraine as headwinds and ICM generating losses in 2016E. Our cost savings assumption is E5.5m short vs. upper range of management guidance. And equates to break even profits next year and E3m in 2016E…