The shares lost 9% on Friday on 52k shares – 3Q14 was okay. Admittedly our DPS assumption was too generous which we had to cut today. We underestimated …

We stick to our OI rating on FCFE yields of 13% in 2015E and 15% in 2016E. Investors should be buying on any share price weakness; EV/EBITDA 2015E at 3.9x; Pay TV could add 6% on group EBITDA and +E0.75 to our PT following recent sports content agreements (Champions & Europa Leagues). Dividend to be reinstated next year (out of 2014 earnings).

The shares lost 11% since our initiation with a DON’T OWN IT rating. Dragged down by the underperformance of the Greek market; mainly on politics related risk. Today we upgrade to OWN IT; if the government changes we won’t change our view. We believe DPS will increase fast to reach …

We think it will be difficult to hit the Q4 2014 launch target; VLTs are a massive-scale project and we find the odds are greater that the company will face execution delays and hardball negotiations from agents that will opt to stay out of this venture. We see VLTs contributing E48m of EBITDA in 2015E or E28m on a net basis after accounting for cannibalization on KINO. In 2016E gross VLT contribution rises to E155m minus E55m lost from KINO = +E100m net EBITDA impact. But we feel the risk is more rewarding in other names (OTE, Jumbo, Helex) which lack the execution risk of a big project like VLTs. EBITDA -8.7%/-17.5%/-24.8% in 2014E/2015E/2016E.

Shares now at a 17-month low and net cash/mkt cap at 50% compared to 35% historically; P/E 2015E at 9.5x adjusted for cash vs. 12.9x historical average; Risk/reward wise we recommend long-term investors build a position; Helex trades as per investors perception on the sovereign; we have lowered our ADV and EPS estimates by 10-30% in 2014-17E as we are adopting a more conservative stance for the next 12 months.